India Decides !

          I find fascinating and at times hilarious talking politics with taxi/truck drivers at their level. They do give first-hand grass-root information. On 16 May 2014 (afternoon) -- the day India and many parts of the world were glued to TV watching Indian Lok Sabha election results -- we received our consignment from Guwahati. The truck driver had been driving whole day so he had no clue what was latest on election until he crossed one of the Assam police check-posts. The police told the truck driver, “ arre…bhai aaj jaldi dedo, kal se nahi mileage” (Ah..give us fast today, we won’t get from tomorrow). “Kyon sahab?” (why sir) innocent driver asked. The police nervously said, “tum kahan ho? Kal se Modi aa raha hai” (where the hell are you? Modi is coming from tomorrow). Do you think this was isolated case? I don’t. Those used to extortion would probably be saying same all over India. This is the post-election India, on its way to Modi-fication after BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) landslide victory, the figures (such as BJP: 282, Congress: 44 …) everyone knows by hard now. Here I am referring to the perception change at grass-root level through sudden change of the country's leadership and power landscape, an important element for reform to succeed.

        On 17 May 2014 I was on a day’s business trip to nearby town, Bongaigaon, Assam. We stopped by a Dhaba (roadside tea stall) for tea. The Dhaba people said they had heavy hang-over from previous day’s “dancing/drinking”, celebrating their candidate’s massive victory. Their candidate was Naba Kumar Sarania (Hira), Independent (belonging to no party as such) winner from Kokrajhar constituency, the Indian belt neighboring Gelephu and surrounding areas. The Kokrajhar result is critical not only for tribal (Bodo) and non-tribal (non-Bodo) population of the constituency but equally for us in southern Bhutan considering that it is one of the most volatile regions of India where several horrifying acts have been committed, and with frequent kidnapping, strike and curfew.

        Hira Sarania – a former United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) commander – is aligned with non-Bodo groups and won with big margin. So the celebration we saw was non-Bodo supporters celebrating victory of first non-Bodo candidate  in the Lok Sabha from Kokrajhar. I wish it was as simple as that, but it is not.

        Both communities are likely to draw contradictory messages from Sarania landslide victory. Bodos are likely to view his triumph as an indication that outsiders (non-Bodos) have marginalized and alienated  them in their own lands. Non-Bodos, on the other hand, see it as proof of the Bodos turning into minority now. So the peace in the area is up in the air for a toss.

        The only hope again may be Modi-fication that Modi’s BJP (or other way round) -- after winning 7 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats even in Assam where Congress (winning only 3 seats this time) have ruled past 63 out of 67 years -- will form the first BJP state government in Assam and with local leaders take control of the situation. The Kokrajhar problem will be tough to crack even for BJP. I am saying this because of the sheer dimension. The like (and/or unlike) Kokrajhar problems multiply India-wide across 28 states and seven union territories, each with the size of a country. The perception change similar to that of Assam police will definitely help put the house in order. But this alone cannot stand on its own. It would be beneficial on all accounts for us if we also could make our modest efforts (at central, state and local levels) toward peaceful resolution of the Kokrajhar problem.

        In Bongaigaon, I overheard my business counterpart telling “nothing” to his colleague’s “how was the election”. I asked what exactly he meant. He said Modi fever was blowing like a storm. He knew his vote did not count. So it was nothing. I said Modi came to Assam twice and promised to develop resource-rich north-east.  “That is very promising”, he said. Interesting! Politics of compulsion rather than choice. A non-BJP person believing in Modi to do well for him.

     The BJP emphasis for north-east includes improving governance, delivery of public services, eradicating systemic corruption and rapidly developing north-east by empowering the Ministry of North-Eastern Region. Specific programs include emphasizing on massive infrastructure development; addressing  flood control in Assam and river water management issues; generating jobs through tourism and IT industry; addressing infiltration and illegal immigration problems; fencing India-Bangladesh and India-Myanmar borders and stepping up border security; taking safety measures for north-eastern students studying across the country; and dealing with insurgent groups with a firm hand.

          Generally people seem to like BJP’s inclusiveness slogan of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (together with all, development for all) and their economic mantras of peoples’ empowerment in place of economic handout, focus on outcomes rather than outlays, and skills development. And then the people of India have huge expectation, the reason why Modi was given lanslide victory ending the old top-down politics dominated by money and muscle power. The Indian politics has changed for good. Those outdated were left behind and may have to even give up.

             The big question now is, will BJP be able to deliver in line with peoples’ expectation?  I do not think there is a choice from now. They will have to try. So, we should be smart enough to move along in terms of both structural reforms and inclusive development. We need to be sharp and proactive. As I said earlier perfect policies and strategies, balanced implementation and precise timing are key elements of the geopolitical foresight !