Prime Minister Modi's First Second-Term Visit

1.    Prime Minister Narendra Modi made the weekend visit to Bhutan on 17 and 18 August 2019. From the beginning everything looked out of the ordinary despite the fact that it was not the first state visit of his second-term in office unlike his last visit in June 2014. Not an issue. It was his first second-term visit to Bhutan, and he covered 13 progammes in 27 hours,  high energy exhibit by a regular yoga practitioner.

2.    On 9 August 2019 Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale held a press briefing in New Delhi  "only for Bhutan visit”, first time ever if I am not mistaken. He indicated the programme of the visit and took few questions from the floor. The objective, he explained , was to diversify relationship from simply being based on hydropower to other areas where India wanted more cooperation and collaboration with Bhutan. Huh?

3.    The 11th Plan (2013-2018) development assistance of Rs 5,000 crore (Rs 50 billion), excluding hydropower funds, comprised: (i) project-tied assistance: Rs 2,800 crore (Rs 28 b), (ii) small development projects: Rs 850 crore (Rs 8.5 b), (iii) program grant (development subsidy): Rs 850 crore (Rs 8.5 b), and (iv) economic stimulus package: Rs 500 crore (Rs 5 b). So what was the relationship diversification beyond hydropower all about?

4.    Mr. Gokhale mentioned that India's commitment to 12th Five Year Plan (2018-2023)  was also  Rs 5,000 crore (Rs 50 b). In addition India was committed to provide Rs 400 crore (Rs 4 b)  during the Plan period for trade support facility to encourage Bhutanese to undertake more export to India.  Nothing out of the box.

5.  On 16 August 2019 Prime Minister Narendra Modi even issued Departure Statement prior to his visit to Bhutan mentioning “India and Bhutan enjoy excellent bilateral ties exemplified by our extensive development partnership, mutually beneficial hydro-power co-operation, and strong trade and economic linkages.  These are, reinforced by a shared spiritual heritage and robust people-to-people ties.” The Departure Statement, also first ever before Bhutan visit, sounded soothing smooth for both body and mind in view of  the heat that was being generated out of looming financial problem flagged by automobile sector's recent down-turn and Kashmir's special status withdrawal that also entrenched the state being turned into two union territories on territorial and also on religious grounds.

6.    And Indian Ambassadoor Ruchira Kamboj in Thimphu underlined that Mr. Modi’s visit may be seen as the continuum leading to a strengthened Indo-Bhutan partnership and also said,  “Bhutan has fully supported India in the reorganization of Jammu and Kashmir. In fact they have recognized that this is purely an internal matter of India. They have lauded it as very bold, courageous and forward-looking step that will ensure the socio-economic development of Jammu and Kashmir and also bring peace, progress and prosperity to the Union Territory.”  I did not understand the context but took that sometimes timing weighed in on connotation.

7.    On our side preparations in Thimphu for the Modi visit was way beyond normal VVIP "chadi" (welcome). Thimphu got face-lifted and strict security and traffic control were enforced. The roadside shops and vegetable vendors along the Paro–Thimphu highway and other routes were cleaned. The Memorial Chorten was closed for 24 hours. The "drayangs" (discotheques), karaokes, bars and night musics were closed on 16 and 17 August 2018. There were rumours circulating that even funerals may not be permitted on 17 and 18 August 2019. That may have to do with inconvenient location of the "dhuthroe" (crematorium) than people in mourning being treated as security risks. Plain, flat, colourful and on most accounts expensive red-carpet "chadi". We do not seem to use our brain much, except to make it look almost sycophantically awkward. Can we start from improving the official  Press Release? 

8.    Amid glitz and glamour Mangdechhu Hydroelectric Project was inaugurated. The 720 MW project was completed at the cost of Rs 5,012 crore (Rs 50.12 b), most cost effective hydropower project in south Asia (Mr. Gokhale's words). How much healing effect the cost effectiveness will instill into the negative sentiments the Bhutanese carry about Punatshangchu Hydroelectric Project -1 (PHPA-1) is anybody's guess. The release of stamp commemorating five decades of Indo-Bhutan Hydropower Cooperation marked a good symbolism but will  be of  no value in terms of offsetting the PHPA-1 skepticism.

9.    Prime Minister Modi launched RuPay card by making a purchase at Semtokha Dzong, not really a market place for digital transaction card use. The RuPay card will facilitate day-to-day digital payment at lower transaction cost in two phases: first  the Indian banks will issue the cards to Indian travelers to be used in Bhutan, and in second phase Bhutanese banks will issue the cards to Bhutanese for  use in India. 

10.    Mr. Modi also inaugurated Ground Station for the South Asian Satellite constructed at a cost of Rs 7 crore (Rs 70 million). The Ground Station will help Bhutan reap the benefits out of South Asia Satellite in the fields of public broadcasting, navigation and geographic information systems, earth observation, weather information, tele-medicine, resource mapping, and disaster relief (and even in tracking satellite movements and receiving data).  The space science and technology  in Bhutan need to move ahead in integrated manner and in tandem with overall development. It is knowledge intensive field.  Therefore the unveiling of the e-Plague for inter-connection between Indian National Knowledge Network (NKN) and Druk Research and Education Network (DrukREN) by Mr. Modi was also of high significance.

11.  Nine Memoranda of Understanding for cooperation in space research, aviation, IT, power and education were signed between:
(i)   Aircraft Investigation Unit, Ministry of Information & Communications of Bhutan, and Aircraft Accident and Investigation Bureau, Ministry of Civil Aviation of India;
(ii)   Royal University of Bhutan (RUB) and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay;
(iii)   RUB and IIT Delhi;
(iv)   RUB and IIT Kanpur;
(v)   RUB and National Institute of Information Technology (NIIT) Silchar;
(vi)   National Legal Institute of Bhutan and National Judicial Academy of India;
(vii)   Jigme Singye Wangchuck School of Law and National Law School of India University (NLSIU);
(viii)   Ministry of Information & Communications, and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO); and
(ix)   Druk Research and Education Network, and National Knowledge Network of India.

The Power Purchase Agreement of Mangdechu Hydroelectric Project was also signed in the presence of two Prime Ministers.

12.    In the press conference in Semtokha Dzong, Mr Modi announced support for:

•  a multi-disciplinary super-specialty hospital (small boost to ruling Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa's good health plus good education equals good governance mantra),
•  an additional $100 million to be made available  to Bhutan under SAARC standby currency swap arrangement,
•  time extension  for keeping the 253-year-old statue of Zhabdrung Ngawang Namgyel in Semtokha Dzong by another five years,
•  an increase of post-graduate scholarship intake in Nalanda University from two to five, and
•  an increase of subsidized Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) from 700 metric tons to 1,000 metric tons per month.

Nothing ground-breaking till now to match the "hallabulla".

13.  On 18 August 2019 Prime Minister Modi addressed the RUB Convention Hall audience reaching out directly to Bhutanese youth (and to the Bhutanese in general relaxing on Sunday morning). Listening to Mr. Modi speak to the students I got an initial impression that he was smooth and articulate in trying to carefully lay backdrop for the Bhutanese people to understand the new Indo-Bhutan friendship niche supported by above initiatives. It was important for him to make us understand vantage point from the closeness of history, culture and spiritual traditions  that have created unique and deep bonds between the peoples and nations. He even co-related his speech-base to how the Buddhist values of positivity, overcoming fear and living in oneness influenced him in writing his book, Exam Warriors, and connected to Bhutanese older generations in terms of having had at least one Indian teacher during their education (true). He said that it was therefore natural process that the people of the two countries experienced great attachment to each other.

14.    And then he went onto say India had biggest health coverage program, cheapest data connectivity in the world and how good and cost efficient had been the India's space program,  of which second moon mission Chandrayaan-2 was in space "right now". He said Bhutan is also on its way to having its own satellite. It was matter of great happiness that young Bhutanese scientists will travel to India to work on designing and launching Bhutan's own small satellite. 

15.    Thereafter the mystery (to me till then) got unfolded. Mr. Modi called  for "cooperation extensively in new frontiers " in education and space among others  that will have "direct impact on young". Every country has its own airspace. It is the portion of the atmosphere controlled by a country above its territory. So integrated airspace cooperation among south Asian countries is critical in the modern space age. Normally airspace should be considered as a single continuum, planned and used in a flexible way on a day-to-day basis by all categories of airspace users for which sharing data, structured planning and integration of airspace management are key considerations. This, in my view, was the new horizon. And in space we have no option to sit idle, unlike on ground.

16.     So Prime Minister Modi said, "Let no limitation constrain you. I want to tell you all - there is no better time to be young than now. The world today offers more opportunities than ever before. You have the power and potential to do extraordinary things that will impact generations to come. Find your real calling and pursue with full passion." Then he said, "As Bhutan soars high in its endeavours, your 1.3 billion Indian friends will not just look on and cheer you with pride and happiness. They will partner you, share with you and learn from you."  Mr. Modi looked comfortable and at ease all through, his body language showed.

17.    The message to youth is clear: here is the challenge for the Bhutanese young generation to do well in new fields with assurances of full cooperation from India all the way, without the need to worry about encroachment, whatsoever, into Bhutan's space, but with absolutely no room for failure.

18.     It is like telling us how and what to do  in space through integrated approach for deriving  full benefits in terms of tele-medicine, distance education, resource mapping, weather forecast and even natural disaster warning (and  also through satellite tracking and data reception), but the airspace is not to be left empty and unattended (period).

19.    In spite of all these if we do not succeed, India is not to be blamed. This is the flip-side. Therefore, PM Modi's challenge to young Bhutanese is as big as their future. This is the Indo-Bhutan relationship taken to new frontier and out of the box!!

How will India behave on roads?

1.   All Indian roads (including highways) cater to multi-way, multi-load, multi-dimension and multi-mix traffic and are most chaotic anywhere. The road traffic comprise children, youths, adults, elderlies, chickens, goats, cows, push-carts, bullock-carts, bicycles, motorcycles, cars, super-cars, buses, trucks and trailers of all shapes and sizes that move in multi-directions with no regard for any law, system and/or norm, leave aside traffic management and road safety regulations. Twenty rupees quietly slipped into the hand of a law enforcer will get you out of violation of normal traffic rule, interpretation of which varies from place to place. Driving opposite on a one-way road is nothing abnormal. So don’t you loose patience if you encounter someone driving directly at you on one-way street. Patience is tested to the limit.

2.   The road safety in India is huge. As per International Road Federation (IRF), India accounts for highest number of road deaths in the world. Every four minute, one person is killed because of a road accident. At present India accounts for solid 10% of global road accidents with more than 146,000 fatalities annually, the highest in the world. And the road accidents are costing Indian economy $8 billion or Rs 56,000 crore  every year. In my view this by no means is an actual figure.  Many accidents are not reported and all road accident costs (e.g., productive man-hour lost) are not fully captured in this figure. 

3.    These behavior, mindset and  situation can not go hand-in-hand with $5 trillion (no idea how much in crores of rupees) economy (third-largest in the world behind US and China) that India is pitching to become  by 2024. India needs to reform every sector and take a path to massive growth trajectory with overall mindset befitting to it. The recently approved India’s Union Budget 2019 bets on three main drivers to set the economy on the path of achieving $5 trillion target: massive infrastructure development, easing the credit squeeze and major structural changes in agriculture. 

4.    Infrastructure development is not just constructing physical structure. Road is an infrastructure, a physical structure. Road by itself does not give beneficial outcome of infrastructure development. You do not derive benefits just by constructing a road. The proper use of the road will give benefits. What good are the roads, even if they are of highest standards and specifications, if the above traffic disorders are to continue forever. The government of India (GOI) may kiss the dream of $5 trillion economy goodbye right away if there is no change in road behavior of the people. GOI knows it. 

5.    So Motor Vehicles (Amendment) Act 2019 (the Act) is GOI's strategic move, a massively disruptive reform in trying to redirect peoples’ perception through behavioral re-engineering to a more discipline and organized India. In my view it will be no less than Goods and Services Tax (GST) if implemented rigorously. The Motor Vehicles (Amendment) Act 2019 amends the provisions under the Motor Vehicles Act of 1988, had been under discussion  for quite some time and had even been passed by Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) in April 2017. However, it could not get Rajya Sabha (upper house) clearance and lapsed with the dissolution of 16th Lok Sabha before the 2019 Indian general election of April/May. The amended Act has now been approved by Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha  on 30 July and 31 July 2019 respectively.

6.    The relevant amendments, among others, that concern Bhutanese drivers on Indian roads are the following:

Cost For Traffic Violations in India
Section	Offence	New Penalty (Rs)	Old Penalty (Rs)
181	Driving without a licence	5,000	500
194B	Not wearing a seat belt	1,000	100
179	Disobedience of orders of authorities	2,000	500
185	Drink and drive	10,000	2,000
194	Overloading of vehicles (truck)	20,000 (1st one ton) + 2,000 (every ton)	2,000 (1st one ton) +1,000 (every ton)
194A	Overloading of vehicles (Passenger)	1,000 per passenger	No provision
184	Dangerous driving	5,000	1,000
184	Mobile phone use while driving	5,000	1,000
194E	Not giving pass to emergency vehicles	10,000	No provision
189	Racing	5,000	500
183	Over-speeding (Light Vehicle)	1,000	400
183	Over-speeding (Heavy Vehicle)	2,000	400
134	Hit-and-run case (Death)	2,00,000	50,000
134	Hit-and-run case (Injury)	50,000	12,500
177A	Road regulation violation	500	100

7.    The road act/law has to have deterrent effect: first that the punishments imposed on offenders will deter or prevent that particular offender from committing further crimes, and second threat of penalty deter people from committing road safety offences. The earlier level of cost of traffic violations have had practically no major deterrent effect on general public. The penalty needs to be significant, not a paltry amount, that people feel the consequences of breaking the law and not find  themselves at ease to break the laws and pay fines or find unscrupulous means to get around to cover-up offences.

8.    In China if a driver is found to have blood alcohol content (BAC) over the allowable limit, the person will pay RMB 2,000 (Nu 20,000 equivalent) plus face 6 months suspension of driving licence. In South Africa it is up to 6 years jail and R120,000 (Nu 25,000) fine. In North America it is $50 (Nu 35,000) fine. In South Korea driving licence is suspended up to 1 year. All these are not intended to punish people but to discipline the road users in following road regulations and make people more responsible. The road regulations are aimed at inducing behavioral change for preventive awareness, not at punitive actions.

9.    Therefore, the choice for India is between (i) more forceful amendment of the Motor Vehicles Act of 1988 for stronger regulatory and penalty regime to bring about more enlightened road use, prevent road accidents and improve road safety aimed at eventual road users’ behavioral change, and (ii) keep status-quo with token penalty and let everyone abuse the system in chaotic bazaar where progressive innovations/ initiatives are entangled in anarchy and are deprived of disciplined, organized and progressive environment.

10.    In moving head with the Motor Vehicles (Amendment) Act 2019, corruption increase near-term is obvious. Increased penalty will entail demand for higher amounts to let offenders go scot-free by rent-seekers/unscrupulous elements/corrupt officials. But then why would anyone pass a law that will encourage higher corruption? I do not believe the strategy can be so numb on corruption. Two issues are critical here: first, when there are less traffic violations (due to deterrent effect) the question of paying more illegally is little vain longer-term, and second the Act rests totally on how effective is its implementation.  Effective implementation will weed out corruption in due course. So, complete effort is meaningless if there is no strategy for its strong implementation. 

11.   The Act also stipulates that if the contractors or authorities fail to follow prescribed road designs and standards, and their failure results in injury or death of a person, they will be held responsible for the same. There was no such provision in the earlier act. This approach and strong dependency on digital media for monitoring road transport efficiency give the impression that GOI is far more serious this time around on the implementation of the Motor Vehicles (Amendment) Act 2019. Till then, let's keep the fingers crossed!