Nepal Earthquakes

I could not walk pass some of the narrow gullies of Kathmandu,  without a thought about earthquake and feel of chill through my spine, looking how attached and fragile the houses were. I know the earthquake happens due to tectonic activity. But the earthquake disaster is a function of  tectonic activity, population size and quality of construction. Why were the authorities so indifferent that you almost feel like you are in three different countries while travelling around Kathmandu, Pokhra and remote villages of Nepal. That was my observation during our holiday there in January this year.  Sitting on top of major geological fault with one of highest urban population densities in the world (with population growth rate of about 6.5%) and dilapidated and fragile buildings all over, Kathmandu valley was clearly facing high earthquake risk. This, for smartphone era people with internet at their finger tips, is a general knowledge.

The Nepali villagers may say some things are beyond control. It was their karma. The tectonic activity is beyond anyone’s control but population density and construction qualities are man-made. The 1934 and 1988 earthquakes severely damaged Kathmandu with around 10,600 and 1,500 fatalities respectively. Life of human being is, at some point, touched by tragedy of some kind. I believe only those who accept this fact are more prepared to face it, for tragedy does not come with warning. How could the authorities not accept the facts of tragedies of such dimensions and get caught so unprepared? It is, in my view, the recklessness of ruling generations with neither a sense of responsibility nor accountability.

The devastation wrought by 7.8 magnitude on 25 April 2015 is hard to grasp. The official counts of dead are at least 8,046 people and injured more than 17,800 and adding. As per New York Times more than a quarter of the Nepal’s 28 million people have been affected. Entire villages remain buried under avalanches or landslides. About 75 percent of the buildings in Kathmandu are destroyed or are unsafe. We are close neighbour. Looking at these figures and images, our hearts ache. We prayed and did whatever we possibly could, and are still doing.

Looking around Kathmandu valley, people who survived may have just started to come out of the shock and feel little lucky. Lucky that it did not hit them hard. Lucky that the earthquake was during the daylight, during the night people would have been sleeping and who knows what would have happened. And that it was Saturday, when the children were not in schools. Also lucky that it did not happen during mid-monsoon or mid-winter.

As if not to let the Nepalese escape the trauma, another earthquake of 7.3 magnitude strikes Nepal again on 12 May 2015 followed by several aftershocks.  The government reported more than 100 deaths and 2,500 injuries.  Many would have said perseverance has limit. After the limit is crossed, what else can you do when the world is turned upside down? Thank God, Nepalese are more bold than one could imagine. If one Nepali rises in organizational hierarchy, pulling the person down is typical  Nepalese characteristic. But if in emergency, they fight and reach out to one another like no one else. They do not desert, as if to bear witness to the fact that true qualities of a being is tested during emergency. That probably shows bold Gurkha  chi with high resilience. The reason why PM Narendra Modi believes in the saying that “if a soldier says he is not afraid of death, he is either lying or he is a Gurkha.”

While the spirit may be strong, Nepal needs to fight the big battle, the battle to prevent cholera and other disease, speed-up relief operation to beat monsoon season which begins in about five weeks to provide tents and food to as many as 800,000 Nepalis whose homes are uninhabitable, and also quash  unscrupulous elements from becoming active in stealing properties, child trafficking, corruption  and other malpractices.

The big question now is, when will the Indian plate stop pushing Eurasia plate north-east causing unprecedented devastation in Nepal?  Will the Nepalese get over the search and rescue phase and move onto relief operation or they will be thrown back to digging survivors again? Some speculate that the thrust between the subducting Indian plate and the overriding Eurasia plate is moving eastwards, meaning towards Bhutan. The speculation may have been based on the fact that the epicentre has moved from west to east of Kathmandu valley. No one can predict earthquake. It does not come with warning. The fact is the Himalayan range sits on geological fault. The preparation now to face future earthquake will improve resilience and save many lives. 

And then moving on to rehabilitation and reconstruction phase, the longer-term challenge for Nepal is to rebuild shattered infrastructure and economy that may have been pushed back by a decade. Nepal is at a critical cross-road. It may look as an opportunity to rebuild better and do well, and rebound with Gurkha life-force. Or it may continue to remain a country bogged down by the caste-dominant power base ridden with corruption depriving other castes the benefits of sound governance and inclusive development. In Nepal they do not caste their votes, they vote their castes. If the Nepalese do not see opportunities to do well even after earth-shattering disaster, they may not see the light of the day for decades to come. Before that, situation may arise when the country may not be able to fulfill some of the basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign state (period).