India, the 10th largest economy in the world, is
the largest democracy with 814.5 million registered voters – again largest in
the world -- participating in next month’s 16th Lok Sabha election. The
election will take place from 7 April to 12 May, before expiry of the term of
15th Lok Sabha on 31 May 2014. The forthcoming election will have
100 million more voters than the last 2009 election. The addition is mainly because
of the youngsters entering into the voting age group. Why not when 50% of its
population is below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. The
young voters live in cities, and are
aspiring, ambitious and street smart. It is the young India who will pick the
next government and the prime minister. So the outcome is not expected to be as a result of usual patronage politics.
India’s main weaknesses are governance and infrastructure. Poor
governance and infrastructure resulting mainly from corruption, not lack of
skills. In fact India’s strength lies on its intellectual, technical and
engineering talents. And the other strength is labour, both for supporting its economy and (looks like this time around) politics.
So the main issue revolving
around Indian election this time is corruption. It even gave birth to an Aam Aadmi
Party (common man party) proliferating their agenda on three Cs - Corruption, Crony
capitalism and Clean governance. And, the reason why Indian National Congress (Congress), heading the central government for a total of 50 years
since independence in 1947, is struggling to achieve three figure Lok Sabha outcome,
if the opinion polls are to be believed, in the house of 543 seats. Nandan Nilekani, an IIT graduate and co-founder of Infosys with net worth of $1.3 billion, joined
Congress party recently. He was asked despite having good pedigree and coming with vast corporate experience
why was he interested in joining Congress when its popularity was sagging day-by-day.
He said his decision to join the party
was not based on “flavour of the month” but more on Indian National Congress
ideology. It sounds more like gearing towards 17th Lok Sabha
election in 2019 than preparing for the next month. Same applies to the
Congress strategy to replace 35% of its candidates with younger politicians, including Karthi Chidambaram in place of finance minister father P. Chidambaram. The Congress, it seems, is "mentally prepared' that they will not win this election. The question is how will they shape-up in 2019 and there after.
That leaves Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on firm front-footing
for pursuing Narendra Modi’s neoliberal agenda with a
drive towards development. BJP’s
policies in the past have included extensive privatisation of infrastructure
and services, as well as a significant rollback of labour and environmental
regulations: a business-friendly situation that also catered to BJP’s upper
class constituencies. The reason why BSE Sensex has leaped up from 18,000 in August
2013 to all time high of 22,307 due to continued buying by foreign
investors, and likes of Mukesh Ambani are upbeat. So are investment analyst. Adam Gilmour, head of Citigroup’s
Asia-Pacific currency and derivatives sales, says if Narendra Modi becomes
India’s next prime minister the weak rupee will strengthen by some 35% to 40 to a dollar from an all-time low of over 68 to the US dollar. The corporate India is backing Modi. But the critics say development
in Modi's Gujarat has not been pro-poor. Arvind Khejriwal, the leader of Aam Aadmi Party, knew it and
wanted to encash on it drumming pro-poor tune on the streets of Ahmadabad until he was picked
up by Gujarat police that diverted attention.
The India’s huge potential strength is its young labour. In the old world, labour as a resource
could not be brought into the global market. Now with modern technology the global labour market is gradually coming into
a common pool changing even the structure of the global economy. It is possible
for workers en masse to be working for Japanese, Americans and Europeans
sitting in India (No one will know better than Nandan Nilekani) . So how can the Indian politics rely on old-fashioned cynicism. The BJP knows and other political parties are
also realizing the change.
It is not going to be tectonic shift from
patronage to empowerment in Indian politics just after one Lok Sabha election
rinse. Indians aspiring to transform themselves from subjects to citizens
may not be adequate to break the cosy relationships enjoyed by the politicians
so soon. But it is most likely that the young India will not let the Indian politics
divert to old money, muscle and cronyism
pattern either. It may take time for the change. There are too many forces to
diffuse for moving forward and protecting their past (mis)doings and
interests, internal and external.
This
reminds me of the news I read that Gautam
Bambawale, joint secretary in-charge
of the East Asia division that includes China and Japan, has been appointed
India’s next ambassador to Bhutan replacing ambassador V. P. Haran who has been
in Thimphu since January 2013, just before the Bhutanese election. Whatever may
be the reason, speculation easily shifts towards political manoeuvring just
before the two elections, Bhutanese and Indian.
By the same token, the 12th Empowered Joint Group approved
on 12 March 2014 four hydropower
projects, including selection of following Indian public sector companies as joint
venture partners of Druk Green Power
Corporation , while 70% loan financing arrangements are still not in place:
(i)
Satluj
Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited for 600 MW Kholongchhu project (cost: Nu 26B);
(ii)
Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited for 570 MW Wangchhu (cost: Nu 46.4B);
(iii)
Tehri
Hydro Development Corporation Limited for Bunakha (cost: Nu 29.5B); and
(iv)
The
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation for 770 MW Chamkharchhu (cost: Nu 47.7B).
We
should be aware of the fact that change in government brings about microscopic scrutiny
on the past actions. This is universal political phenomena. Even if we are not
able to hedge our bet to take advantage of the change, flagging the issues last
hour on radar screen may turn out counterproductive. We should be smart enough
to take care of the situation. If we cannot then there is no option except to take responsibility
for the position we are in!
