The Integrated Economic Community

H. Jackson Brown Jr. says “opportunity dances with those already on the dance floor.” True! If you are not on a dance floor how can anybody/anything dance with you. And to be on the floor, one needs to be healthy, not cynically crippled, and know how to dance well. It is not salsa, samba, tango, bharat natyam or Bhutanese “cham” the discussion is about. Let us not go literal, for PM Narendra Modi will push South Asian countries to the dance floor. He told visiting US Secretary of State John Kerry that he wanted to unite South Asia into an integrated economic community (IEC). By coming together, the South Asian economy will be much stronger. If they do, the IEC will be the “dance floor.” So we better do our homework and learn well the “economic dance” steps if we want the opportunities to dance with us. Even if IEC remains just a Modi dream (implausible), we still need to learn the nitty-gritty of South Asian economic affairs if our economy is to move in the right direction. If not, it will take its own course heading to dysfunctional configuration.

     Economic integration is the fusion of economic policies between different countries through partial or full elimination of tariff and non-tariff restrictions on trade between them. This is meant to lead to lower prices of goods and services benefiting distributors and consumers. The goal is to strengthen combined economic vitality and increase productivities of the countries. This is the economic rationale.  In addition to this, there are much more complex reasons, political obviously.

      The economic side alone will demand ambitious and coherent cooperation from the South Asian member countries. So the easy start for India to initiate the economic integration process is through Bhutan and Nepal.  Before the start of his first state visit, Modi has not only assured Bhutan of more funds for economic development but also wanted to speed up economic integration. This  he confirmed with massive increase of Indian grant and loan allocation to Bhutan of Rs 60 billion (US$ 1 billion equivalent) for this year compared with Rs 41 billion last year, an increase of nearly 50%. We do need strong capacity strength this year to uphold increased Indian assistance to the tune of 60% of GDP on our shoulders and stand straight. Prior to his departure to Nepal PM Modi said "I hope my visit will open a new chapter in India-Nepal relations, characterized by more frequent political engagement and closer cooperation across the full spectrum of our extraordinarily broad-based relations, which will serve as a model and catalyst for South Asian partnership for prosperity." He assured Nepalese parliament the availability of Nepali rupees 100 billion (US$ 1 billion) concessional line of credit  proposing “HIT” mantra [H:Highways (roadways), I:I-ways (information highways) and T:Transways (for energy transmission lines)] and encouraged harnessing hydro-power, of which Nepal’s untapped potential is estimated at 42,000 MW  while the installed capacity now is just 600 MW. I have my own analysis of the two one-billion-dollar packages and  "B4B" (Bharat for Bhutan and Bhutan for Bharat) vis-à-vis  "HIT" mantras, short- and long-term including the differences. You may have your own.

And, there are reports that the West Bengal state cabinet has allocated Rs 14 billion for improving North Bengal road connection with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal even though the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is proposing  to take her first overseas trip to Singapore to mobilize resources. The congress government in Assam, our other immediate neighbour in the south, may be indifferent to the momentum.

In the South Asian context,  Modi government wants a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) development bank established early. In July 2014, the 8th South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) Ministerial Council  met in Thimphu and agreed to fast-track the establishment of the SAARC  bank. The proposal is expected to be approved at the 18th SAARC summit scheduled in November this year in Kathmandu, Nepal. Transport and trade financing, the lifelines of economic integration, are expected to be major thrust of SAARC bank.

Within India a massive plan for new financial inclusion is expected to be announced by PM Modi on coming 15 August, independence day of India. There is no sense in talking integration with neighbours if your house is disintegrated. Simple as that. The plan includes providing universal access to banking facilities to the so far uncovered 100 million rural households. The second phase includes financial literacy programme, micro credit availability and creation of credit guarantee funds. All these, and more, on the economic front.

On the complex segment of economic integration, PM Modi sees integrated South Asian economic community through the security angle considering particularly the aggressive Chinese move to bring railways at three border points with Nepal, and at the "chicken's neck" area of Bhutan and India by 2020. The Chinese say the “network will play the role of continental bridge in South Asia and promote economic and cultural exchanges”. I am sure it will, but the complex aspect is silent.

When things move in critical direction in a break-neck speed can anyone afford remaining dysfunctional? It would simply be unfortunate!

The functionality of the government is often determine by the fact that how a healthy organization/society regulates corruption. A person commits a crime. Eventually, the organization/agent/news papers find out about it, and despite the fair amount of blowback, they will get and take a grip on it. The culprit digs in, but more inconsistencies are out. The person resigns. It's an unattractive example, but that's what a functioning system looks like.

And, the dysfunction looks like the following. The functionary identifies a procedural issue which, if messed with,  is almost impossible to take the grip on. That it debilitates the country’s economy is non-issue for those who look through kaleidoscopic procedural loopholes for rent seeking. Then paralysed and ethically deficient governance replaces performance and outcome. The people with passion and commitment sadly vanishes from the look.  There are these in every government. The rules are made with exception to take care of the weaker section of the society. The cunning entity turns itself into a weaker faction to take advantage of the exception, to bypasses the rule. Then there are vicious government-private circles that operate through the channel benefiting everyone at heavy cost to the government. There is a vacuum of ideology, principles, purpose and integrity which money rushes to fill. They do not even perceive the world go by outside their own window.

The reason why the Chinese and Indians are cracking the corruption ring respectively through investigations and severe actions on suspected "serious disciplinary violation" by communist party members and  crackdown by special investigation team on black money stashed abroad. In China the clean–up has reached  unprecedented level that a previous member of the highest 7-member decision-making body,  the Politburo Standing Committee, has taken the direct hit. The method and speed differs: one with communist style and pace and other republican. We are neither of two nor have so much cash to stash in vaults, but not ideally functional. It is just a question of couple of retrofits at the bull’s-eye enabling fresh and passionate empathy circulation into the system. That will bring passion, commitment and even courage in the right place. It is not possible to know how hot the water is without a dip. Not a rocket science, those who have taken a dip know where the bull’s-eye is. Even the termites bring down a beautiful house if their strength is underestimated. For bright and predictable, a spinal strength, it is about!

The World Cup

Around thirty years ago, I met one gentleman during one of the seminar coffee breaks in New Delhi. I don’t recollect his name but I still remember how he introduced himself. “I am …. from Uruguay. You know football, World Cup? We are very good in football.” I thought the introduction was intriguing. The person obviously was jolly. He thought no one would know Uruguay in this part of the World, so he might as well enter through football, more appropriately the World Cup, the biggest event on earth. The first World Cup, with only 13 countries competing for the trophy, was held in Uruguay in 1930. Fast forward to World Cup 2014, Uruguay entered into Round of 16. So what if Uruguay superstar Luis Suarez bit Italy's Giorgio Chiellini, every Uruguayan would say. To them it was a non-issue in comparison to Uruguay-Italy score of 1-0 in group D match. Uruguay, minus Suarez who returned home carrying 9-match FIFA ban on his shoulder, played quarterfinal and lost to Colombia. For banning Suarez the guy I met in Delhi would have slammed FIFA leaders in no lesser in terms than his President Jose Mujica’s  “sons of bitches”.

       You cannot call me World Cup fanatic by any standard. If I were, I would not doze off in sofa during past mid-night matches.  I was up and down during the matches but invariably watched extra time play and/or penalty shootouts. In those on-off sessions I caught one scene that I must narrate here. Two players collide in mid air, both fall flat and act as if they are competing in “who-dies-first” episode.  The referee blows whistle, and runs to give a hand to one of the players to stand on his feet. When he is up, the referee says something, most likely, “we play football here, not opponent’s butt.” Both laugh. Then the ref flashes yellow card on him. The player is still laughing. The slowmo showed a solid knee kick on opponent’s backside. The player who got kicked gets up on his own massaging his back. No help for him.  The Arab proverb says “when you shoot an arrow of truth, dip its point in honey.” How true!  It was fun even when I was half asleep. Yes, fun World Cup had lots of it but same thing you watch on repeat telecast, it is stale. The World Cup peculiarity!

        We saw in the World Cup amazing display of preparation, determination and organization; of the level   Louis van Gaal, the Dutch World Cup coach, exhibited to the amazement of the whole world. In an unusual and bold move he replaces  Holland’s goalkeeper with substitute Tim Krul at the end of extra time. Krul had not touched a ball earlier in this World Cup. van Gaal sent him just to save penalties. The tall, imposing Krul goes and saves two Costa Rican penalty shots and walks out Holland’s hero, breaking Costa Rica hearts and ending quarter final match at 4-3 in favour of the Dutch. It was obvious that van Gaal had prepared Krul for penalties. Some say penalties are cruel, but for Costa Rica it was Krul.

      Of the four semi-finalists Brazil have five World Cups, Germany three, Argentina two and the Dutch have been runners up three times. The 2014 World Cup contentions at semi-final were like: (i) Brazil should win because they are good and the host of the 2014 World Cup (and Neymar’s dream); (ii) Germany should win because look at their game plan intelligence; (iii) Argentina should win because look at the way Messi and his team play; and (iv) Holland should win because poor guys have lost thrice earlier. All deserved to win and had stood behind “Say No to Racism” FIFA banner supporting it. We did not see prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism directed against someone of a different race based on the belief that one's own race/ethnicity is superior in the World Cup. Did we? The Uruguayan I met in Delhi, his president and countrymen would disagree, I am quite certain about this.

     I am so fascinated with the World Cup colours and noise. Is the World Cup always so colourful and energetically noisy or the Latin American spirit coming live on TV? And the atmosphere, you would have seen. My closest encounter to that part of the world is through few books I read including  “The Motorcycle Diaries” by Ernesto Che Guevara. If you watched the Brazil-Columbia quarter final 90% of stadium was yellow of which  more than 50% had face painted with Brazil colours. More than Brazil’s 2-1 win, the quarter final will be remembered for their poster boy Neymar being ruled out of the rest of the World Cup due to fractured vertebrae after taking a knee to his back from the Colombia defender Juan Zuniga late in the game. Never mind the top-selling no 10 jersey that even Brazilian dogs preferred to put on and investment of Nike, Unilever, Volkswagen and Santander in him via endorsement deals, the whole nation grieved Neymar’s injury. 

    To add insult to injury, Brazil suffered humiliating 1-7 defeat in semi-final against the Germans. Germany was doing everything right, fully taking advantage of the Brazil imbalance, vulnerability, and disorganized situation. The Germans were absolutely merciless. The Brazil players, 200 million Brazilians and their yellow-jersey clad fans all over the World were in tears. "Like every Brazilian, I am very, very sad about this defeat. I am immensely sorry for all of us. Fans and our players," Brazil President Dilma Rousseff wrote on Twitter. To me the Germans looked awesome from day one. Still 7-1 was a chill pill to swallow. Even hard German fans felt sorry for such Brazilian collapse.

      With Brazil's big defeat still fresh in the memory of everyone, the second semi-final turned out to be conservative  tight match. There were very few opportunities to take a shot to the goal. It looked like both, Argentina and Holland, preferred to go for penalties rather than take aggressive risk: Holland confident from their quarter final four-out-of-four shootout against Costa Rica and Argentina very positive on their football shooting skills. The Dutch coach van Gaal had already used his three substitutes and could not bring Tim Krul for penalties like before. He could have saved one to bring in Krul. Why he did not do is a mystery. Accurate the Argentineans were, shooting four of the four balls into the net and the Argentina goalkeeper, Sergio Romero, was the shootout-hero blocking two Dutch penalty shots. This gave Argentina 4-2 win for the final with Germany. With that win and Brazil out, the Argentina fans have made Rio de Janeiro’s famous Copacabana beach their own, turning it from yellow-green to blue-white, to cheer South American World Cup win. 

      With injured star Neymar watching the match from the bench, Brazil lost 0-3 to Netherlands in the third-place play-off. Brazil defence looked as frail as in the semi-final against Germany when Holland scored their first goal within 3 minutes and second on 17th minute, and strikers did not appear strong enough to penetrate Dutch defence. It obviously is not possible to garner team energy and World Cup momentum so soon. The Netherlands returned with the consolation third place and with unbeaten 2014 World Cup record, the semi-final loss against Argentina being a penalty shootout.

       So Germany is the 1-0 winner of the Jules Rimet World Cup trophy.  They also pocket a grand total of US$35 million while Argentina takes runner-up cheque of US$25 million. The 120 minutes World Cup final was intense. The Germans were ahead overall with more ball possession, impressive display of ball passing and control. The planning, organization and teamwork of Germans were somehow kept on check by the Argentineans except the 113th minute stunning goal by German substitute Mario Gotze. Keeping Germany on check, Argentina had few opportunities to shoot the ball into the German net but they put the ball wide past the goal.  Even though Messi, wearing captain’s armband, may have calibrated his team to make him shine, he had to be satisfied with Golden Ball trophy for best player of the World Cup. I wonder if he will be up there with Pele and Maradona. The Golden Boot for maximum goals was awarded to Colombian James Rodriguez and Golden Glove for best goalkeeper was bagged by Germany’s Manual Neuer.

      Who says we are not outward-looking and least bothered about whatever happens outside in the World except for occasional glance at scanty cut and paste BBC/CNN pieces in Kuensel? The World Cup is World Cup, even Jules Rimet Trophy  was in Changlimithang, Thimphu (Bhutan). So football fans watching World Cup on the giant screen at the same venue should not surprise anyone. Do we need to wear Adidas/Nike no 10 jersey and paint faces to cheer the favourite World Cup team? We can do it in ghos, kiras, pants and shorts,  but for the World Cup spirit!

Prime Minister Modi's First State Visit

       
Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi has chosen to visit Bhutan this month as his first state visit. Non-controversial visit for which there can be neither an argument of one country against the other in the region nor discussion on east versus west. As Gujarat chief minister he had visited Japan five times and China twice. Many thought he is east-ward looking and Japan-friendly.  I guess he still is, but he has to keep prime ministerial balance.  He cannot ignore the United States, the reason why he has a scheduled visit to the US in September 2014, and the west.

A revisionist version of the classic Indian half-sleeved tunic shirt worn by PM Narendra Modi is now called “Modi Kurta”.  He wears Modi Kurta (made from organic cottons and silks) with designer watch (Movado) and sunglasses (Bvlgari). He uses his own pen, a roller-ball Mont Blanc he carries in his left chest-pocket.  The clothing chain Jade Blue has trademarked Modi Kurta and is planning to take it to Britain, the US and Southeast Asia. In keeping with his pro-business ideology, he allowed to trademark Modi Kurta. People say Modi Kurta does not exactly represent extraordinary trend or aesthetic advance but symbolizes a set of values.

He works hard, makes people work hard and sends buzz around. He uttered few words on work environment cleanliness and 'Modi coming' buzz sent top babus (bureaucrats) on roller-coaster clean-up drive. He  is serious about what he says and his words have weight !

PM Narendra Modi's working style:
·  come thoroughly prepared for             meeting
·  make bullet point presentation
·  give no long theories
·  give practical do-able policies and        solutions
·  be ready for follow-up meetings

In short, emphasis on substance than show. He means business, strictly, and no to superficial bureaucratic lip-service.

He chose retired General Vijay Kumar Singh,  24th  Chief of Army Staff of the Indian Army,   as his Minister of State (Independent Charge) for North East Region concurrently Minister of State of External Affairs, both highly relevant and utterly important for Bhutan.  The combination is resolute. And, General V.K. Singh  is known for being the first commando to be promoted to the rank of general and first Indian military chief to take the Government of India to court.

The Ministry of North East Region functions as the nodal ministry of the central government to deal with socio-economic development and peace and security matters of eight north-eastern states: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim.  It acts as a facilitator between the Central Ministries/Departments and the State Governments of these states in economic development and security issues, more specifically in easing infrastructural bottlenecks, providing basic minimum services, creating  environment for private investments and removing impediments to lasting peace and security in the region. And, General Singh as Minster of State (Independent Charge) for North East Region reports direct to PM Modi.

As prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi described north-east region as having full  potential and prospect with abundant natural resources. His words during the election campaign were “North-east is our Laxmi (goddess of wealth), yet they are in such poor state. Unless you vote for lotus (BJP symbol)  where will she (Laxmi) sit.”  Even discounting election rhetoric,  the emphasis in the region cannot be let passed.

His shift from right to centre-right is apparent. He seems to have a strategic approach to deal with north-east region, and look after Bhutan and  the "chicken-neck".

I am not so naive to deduce that PM Modi chose Bhutan just to avoid Pakistan/Sri Lanka or east/west first visit controversy. There are much more at stake. It is called national strategic interest. Every country has its own national strategic interest that they want it to be well protected, and not sacrificed. Why do you think Ukraine is getting sandwiched between NATO and Russia, and poor Ukranians are having to pay a very heavy price? The big boys do not play zero sum game when it comes to pursuing their strategic goals. The small smart nations are vigilant about this. We also need to be. This is first.

Second, the governments may change but strategic national interest (“strong India-Bhutan relation” in diplomatic term) remain firm. What changes is the way the national interest is pursued. The same objective may be achieved through different ways. I do not believe that PM Modi will follow same old pattern more like economic handout as a means to pursue India’s strategic national interest in Bhutan. He is a taskmaster. I think he will support us but we need to deserve the support through hard work. We actually should prefer this approach than resorting to handout dependency. It is good for us: it reforms the system, builds institutional capacity, instils professional discipline and strengthens governance. All these are very vital elements of our own national strategic interest.

So it is possible to pursue our national strategic interest in tandem with theirs. We should be smart enough to understand their approach and mould our ways, not objective. I do not see any other option for now. There is no need to be confrontational, directly or indirectly. We can neither match nor be level with. It is foolish to take such an approach. Haven’t some people tried it and paid the price? The past events are still fresh in our memory.

Third, we take everything lightly. The impression that we do not do our homework and do take things in shallow and superficial manner  (rumours circulating around are crude) is not helpful. It does not work in favour of our strategic national interest.  It undermines our goal, is a shortcut to hard work and is not going to work, not with PM Modi. We need to be clear on our national goals, strategies, policies, plans and programs, and ways for achieving them. We should be prepared (in every sense of the word) to do business (he is after all a Gujarati) with him. If not, business-friendly Modi will ask for “follow-up meeting” (bullet point five of his working style).  Well, not exactly “follow-up meeting” but something equivalent at PM-PM level.

Fourth, we should be prepared to undo things that are neither favourable to our national strategic interest nor theirs. Broad-based, innovative, inclusive and transparent approaches aimed at consolidating available resources, physical including human and knowledge, are nationally productive. We live in internet age. And internet is, everyone knows, a killer technology. It can work to great advantage but does not let everything be viewed through single perspective. The role of social media and digital technology in the defeat of one-dimensional strategy in recent Indian election is too fresh to be forgotten.

So I see the visit as an opportunity for us, an opportunity to take a very productive path ahead with our neighbours. Let us all pray that it actually is !

India Decides !

          I find fascinating and at times hilarious talking politics with taxi/truck drivers at their level. They do give first-hand grass-root information. On 16 May 2014 (afternoon) -- the day India and many parts of the world were glued to TV watching Indian Lok Sabha election results -- we received our consignment from Guwahati. The truck driver had been driving whole day so he had no clue what was latest on election until he crossed one of the Assam police check-posts. The police told the truck driver, “ arre…bhai aaj jaldi dedo, kal se nahi mileage” (Ah..give us fast today, we won’t get from tomorrow). “Kyon sahab?” (why sir) innocent driver asked. The police nervously said, “tum kahan ho? Kal se Modi aa raha hai” (where the hell are you? Modi is coming from tomorrow). Do you think this was isolated case? I don’t. Those used to extortion would probably be saying same all over India. This is the post-election India, on its way to Modi-fication after BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) landslide victory, the figures (such as BJP: 282, Congress: 44 …) everyone knows by hard now. Here I am referring to the perception change at grass-root level through sudden change of the country's leadership and power landscape, an important element for reform to succeed.

        On 17 May 2014 I was on a day’s business trip to nearby town, Bongaigaon, Assam. We stopped by a Dhaba (roadside tea stall) for tea. The Dhaba people said they had heavy hang-over from previous day’s “dancing/drinking”, celebrating their candidate’s massive victory. Their candidate was Naba Kumar Sarania (Hira), Independent (belonging to no party as such) winner from Kokrajhar constituency, the Indian belt neighboring Gelephu and surrounding areas. The Kokrajhar result is critical not only for tribal (Bodo) and non-tribal (non-Bodo) population of the constituency but equally for us in southern Bhutan considering that it is one of the most volatile regions of India where several horrifying acts have been committed, and with frequent kidnapping, strike and curfew.

        Hira Sarania – a former United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) commander – is aligned with non-Bodo groups and won with big margin. So the celebration we saw was non-Bodo supporters celebrating victory of first non-Bodo candidate  in the Lok Sabha from Kokrajhar. I wish it was as simple as that, but it is not.

        Both communities are likely to draw contradictory messages from Sarania landslide victory. Bodos are likely to view his triumph as an indication that outsiders (non-Bodos) have marginalized and alienated  them in their own lands. Non-Bodos, on the other hand, see it as proof of the Bodos turning into minority now. So the peace in the area is up in the air for a toss.

        The only hope again may be Modi-fication that Modi’s BJP (or other way round) -- after winning 7 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats even in Assam where Congress (winning only 3 seats this time) have ruled past 63 out of 67 years -- will form the first BJP state government in Assam and with local leaders take control of the situation. The Kokrajhar problem will be tough to crack even for BJP. I am saying this because of the sheer dimension. The like (and/or unlike) Kokrajhar problems multiply India-wide across 28 states and seven union territories, each with the size of a country. The perception change similar to that of Assam police will definitely help put the house in order. But this alone cannot stand on its own. It would be beneficial on all accounts for us if we also could make our modest efforts (at central, state and local levels) toward peaceful resolution of the Kokrajhar problem.

        In Bongaigaon, I overheard my business counterpart telling “nothing” to his colleague’s “how was the election”. I asked what exactly he meant. He said Modi fever was blowing like a storm. He knew his vote did not count. So it was nothing. I said Modi came to Assam twice and promised to develop resource-rich north-east.  “That is very promising”, he said. Interesting! Politics of compulsion rather than choice. A non-BJP person believing in Modi to do well for him.

     The BJP emphasis for north-east includes improving governance, delivery of public services, eradicating systemic corruption and rapidly developing north-east by empowering the Ministry of North-Eastern Region. Specific programs include emphasizing on massive infrastructure development; addressing  flood control in Assam and river water management issues; generating jobs through tourism and IT industry; addressing infiltration and illegal immigration problems; fencing India-Bangladesh and India-Myanmar borders and stepping up border security; taking safety measures for north-eastern students studying across the country; and dealing with insurgent groups with a firm hand.

          Generally people seem to like BJP’s inclusiveness slogan of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (together with all, development for all) and their economic mantras of peoples’ empowerment in place of economic handout, focus on outcomes rather than outlays, and skills development. And then the people of India have huge expectation, the reason why Modi was given lanslide victory ending the old top-down politics dominated by money and muscle power. The Indian politics has changed for good. Those outdated were left behind and may have to even give up.

             The big question now is, will BJP be able to deliver in line with peoples’ expectation?  I do not think there is a choice from now. They will have to try. So, we should be smart enough to move along in terms of both structural reforms and inclusive development. We need to be sharp and proactive. As I said earlier perfect policies and strategies, balanced implementation and precise timing are key elements of the geopolitical foresight !

                                       

Fire in Gelephu !

The resolve and resilience of society and citizens, and true qualities of an individual are tested during emergency! Gelephu has lived up to it twice that I know of. In both it deserves solid A, if not A+, in my opinion, considering the situation here.

First when Deosiri bridge in India was washed away and Gelephu was cut off from India last year in August, the Gelephu people got together, raised funds, mobilized manpower, construction plants and equipment without waiting for concerned authorities to take prompt action. The road link connecting Gelephu with Indian National Highway NH31, that provides gateway to north-east India, was opened in couple of weeks.  Left to concerned authorities the road would have opened only a week ago in the first week of April 2014, after nine months.

Second, there was fire in Gelephu last night, 21 April 2014. I live on 4^th floor of a building on Jangchub Lam (Jangchub street) in Gelephu city. As I was about to get into bed at around 9:10 pm, I heard police whistles all over and people shouting. I looked out of my bedroom window. There was fire blazing at the top floor (3^rd floor) of the buildings on Norkhil Lam. I could not place the exact location. Norkhil Lam is in east-west direction and is perpendicular to Jangchub Lam. I rushed out and saw from the chorten that the roofs of two buildings had caught fire, barely 40 m away from my building. At that moment, there was a big bang, perhaps burst of an liquified petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder. The fire may have started from one of the buildings about 15/20 minutes earlier and there was every chance that fire could spread quickly in both east and west-wards because the buildings are so very close to each other. 

At 9:15 pm  Gelephu Thromde’s sewerage vehicle, skylift (used for fixing the street lights), ambulance and blue police Hiluxes arrived. After some time Fire Brigade arrived. At the back, roofs of three buildings (two buildings I saw from front and one more building in the east) were burning. So fire brigade started to fight at the back from vegetable market.  Thromde’s sewerage vehicle was pumping water from nearby fire hydrant and spraying water from skyjack to the front of the burning buildings.  The blaze was huge, so people in the skyjack could not bear the heat to go nearer and water pressure was not enough to reach the gap between burning building and next building in the west.

At around 9:30 pm all lights were put off.  The sewerage vehicle water pipe was dropped to the ground from the skyjack. People tried hitting water jet from ground but could not reach the blaze on 3^rd floor. Some shouted, ‘do not waste water!’ The gutter and roof of adjacent building in west started to catch fire.

It was around 9:40 pm, I was in the front line without my realization.  Suddenly I saw three people on  3^rd floor varendah of the building in the west which everyone was desperate to protect from adjacent fire. Then I shouted on top of my lungs, “drop a rope and take the water pipe up.” I shouted three times. People saw the logic then hundreds of people shouted “drop a rope”.  The guys at the top could not find a rope. They tore curtain and joined. Water pipe was pulled up with curtain-rope. Water jet hit from 3^rd floor varendah was able to reach roof-edge and gap in-between the buildings. At 9:50 pm Royal Bhutan Army (RBA) arrived with 100+ strong soldiers and started controlling thousands of people gathered around the blazing buildings. Fire fight continued.

By around 10:10 pm fire was contained from spreading east and west-wards but top floors of three buildings continued to burn inside. The fire did not catch on lower floors mainly because the Syntex water tanks on top floors burnt and water spilled on the floors. Fortunately the night was calm. There was no strong wind. At 10:15 pm Bhutan Power Corporation switched-on the lights in Gelephu except in Norkhil Lam. Another fire brigade arrived at 10:35 pm and started fighting fire from the front. By 11:40 pm all fires were put-off. Ambulance, Fire Brigade and RBA were withdrawn. Many people remained at site, shocked in seeing fire engulfing structures right in front of their eyes.

Fire was put-off in about 2 hours, what could have been much worst scenario in Gelephu. Who said what and who did what at the critical juncture is not important. What is important is what was the combined outcome. Gelephu once again showed solid resolve and resilience to face emergency and come out strong, for perhaps the rest of the country to observe and learn.

Hats-off to Thromde, Fire Brigade, Police, RBA and last but certainly not the least to the Gelephu people !

Is this a sign that Gelephu thinks cooperation, positive influence and compassion rather than negative characteristics (jealousy, hatred, suspicion, polarization...) is the way to go? Time will tell!

India Votes !

India, the 10^th largest economy in the world, is the largest democracy with 814.5 million registered voters – again largest in the world -- participating in next month’s 16^th Lok Sabha election. The election will take place from 7 April to 12 May, before expiry of the term of 15^th Lok Sabha on 31 May 2014. The forthcoming election will have 100 million more voters than the last 2009 election. The addition is mainly because of the youngsters entering into the voting age group. Why not when 50% of its population is below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. The young voters  live in cities, and are aspiring, ambitious and street smart. It is the young India who will pick the next government and the prime minister. So the outcome is not expected to be as a result of usual patronage politics.

India’s main weaknesses are governance and infrastructure. Poor governance and infrastructure resulting mainly from corruption, not lack of skills. In fact India’s strength lies on its intellectual, technical and engineering talents. And the other strength is labour, both for supporting its economy and (looks like this time around) politics. 

So the main issue revolving around Indian election this time is corruption. It even gave birth to an Aam Aadmi Party (common man party) proliferating their agenda on three Cs - Corruption, Crony capitalism and Clean governance. And, the reason why Indian National Congress (Congress), heading the central government for a total of 50 years since independence in 1947, is struggling to achieve three figure Lok Sabha outcome, if the opinion polls are to be believed, in the house of 543 seats. Nandan Nilekani, an IIT graduate and co-founder of Infosys with net worth of $1.3 billion, joined Congress party recently. He was asked despite having good pedigree and coming with vast corporate experience why was he interested in joining Congress when its popularity was sagging day-by-day.  He said his decision to join the party was not based on “flavour of the month” but more on Indian National Congress ideology. It sounds more like gearing towards 17^th Lok Sabha election in 2019 than preparing for the next month. Same applies to the Congress strategy to replace 35% of its candidates with younger politicians, including Karthi Chidambaram in place of finance minister father P. Chidambaram. The Congress, it seems, is "mentally prepared' that they will not win this election. The question is how will they shape-up in 2019 and there after.

That leaves Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on firm front-footing for pursuing Narendra Modi’s neoliberal agenda with a drive towards development. BJP’s policies in the past have included extensive privatisation of infrastructure and services, as well as a significant rollback of labour and environmental regulations: a business-friendly situation that also catered to BJP’s upper class constituencies. The reason why BSE Sensex has leaped up from 18,000 in August 2013 to all time high of 22,307 due to continued buying by foreign investors, and likes of Mukesh Ambani are upbeat. So are investment analyst. Adam Gilmour, head  of Citigroup’s Asia-Pacific currency and derivatives sales, says if Narendra Modi becomes India’s next prime minister the weak rupee will strengthen by some 35% to 40 to a dollar from an all-time low of over 68 to the US dollar. The corporate India is backing Modi. But the critics say development in Modi's Gujarat has not been pro-poor. Arvind Khejriwal, the leader of Aam Aadmi Party, knew it and wanted to encash on it drumming pro-poor tune on the streets of Ahmadabad until he was picked up by Gujarat police that diverted attention.

The India’s huge potential strength is its young labour. In the old world, labour as a resource could not be brought into the global market. Now with modern technology  the global labour market is gradually coming into a common pool changing even the structure of the global economy. It is possible for workers en masse to be working for Japanese, Americans and Europeans sitting in India (No one will know better than  Nandan Nilekani) . So how can the Indian politics rely on old-fashioned cynicism. The BJP knows and other political parties are also realizing the change.

It is not going to be tectonic shift from patronage to empowerment in Indian politics just after one Lok Sabha election rinse. Indians aspiring to transform themselves from subjects to citizens may not be adequate to break the cosy relationships enjoyed by the politicians so soon. But it is most likely that the young India will not let the Indian politics divert to old  money, muscle and cronyism pattern either. It may take time for the change. There are too many forces to diffuse for moving forward and protecting their past (mis)doings and interests, internal and external.

   This reminds me of the news I read that Gautam Bambawale, joint secretary in-charge of the East Asia division that includes China and Japan, has been appointed India’s next ambassador to Bhutan replacing ambassador V. P. Haran who has been in Thimphu since January 2013, just before the Bhutanese election. Whatever may be the reason, speculation easily shifts towards political manoeuvring just before the two elections, Bhutanese and Indian.

By the same token, the 12^th Empowered Joint Group approved on 12 March 2014  four hydropower projects, including selection of following Indian public sector companies as joint venture partners of  Druk Green Power Corporation , while 70% loan financing arrangements are still not in place:

(i)         Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited for 600 MW Kholongchhu project (cost: Nu 26B);

(ii)         Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited  for 570 MW Wangchhu (cost: Nu 46.4B);

(iii)       Tehri Hydro Development Corporation Limited for Bunakha  (cost: Nu 29.5B); and

(iv)       The National Hydroelectric Power Corporation for 770 MW Chamkharchhu  (cost: Nu 47.7B).

We should be aware of the fact that change in government brings about microscopic scrutiny on the past actions. This is universal political phenomena. Even if we are not able to hedge our bet to take advantage of the change, flagging the issues last hour on radar screen may turn out counterproductive. We should be smart enough to take care of the situation. If we cannot then there is no option except to take responsibility for the position we are in!

Is India Fighting Back?

On 6 November 2013, I wrote on Facebook’s “What’s on your mind” the following: “PDP government, better be good at hedging our bets. If not, we do not need to second guess the consequences. Nichey rajniti hava palat nahi rahi hai kya (Isn’t the political wind changing direction down there)?” I was talking of “rajniti hava” (political wind) not in terms of NaMo  for Narendra Modi vis-à-vis RaGa for Rahul Gandhi (Indian press acronyms, not mine), not even  Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) against Congress. I was talking of bottom-up politics sprouting inclusive growth and governance in place of top-down politics of corruption, handout and populous policies. It is more about politics of truth and sincerity upsurge, the change in the political conception of the country. You do not believe me? Feel the ground pulse. Even those who have been promoting and encouraging caste-based politics are now  talking of politics on secular platform.

While 70% of India’s population live in rural areas, the urban India accounts for almost 70% of the country’s GDP. While the votes are in villages, the money is in cities.  The top-down politics with the power of urban money to influence rural votes did not consider in the past that the people are an economic asset. They mattered for votes only, and were out of mainstream development process once the elections were over. The countryside was essentially the venue for legitimizing power and authority. Without their participation in development, inclusive growth is far from reality.

If you come up with the economic growth model that has politically mandated objectives and spell out tasks ordained by such peripherals, it cannot be inclusive. For inclusiveness, the growth has to be owned by citizens of the country through equality of opportunity. It now looks like it is going to be no more integration of old-fashioned political intelligence and perception. It will be different. It would be naïve to underestimate the power of word-of-mouth that travels with the help of digital devices and social media in a lightning speed, with Bollywood to Yogi Ramdeo playing fair share in corruption-bashing trend.  The Indian middle class, comprising about 30% of 1.2 billion populations living in urban areas, champion the art. They are seen as young, aspiring, idealistic and ambitious. Otherwise, how could Arvind Kejriwal, mechanical engineering graduate from my college, IIT Kharagpur, be crowned as the Chief Minister of Delhi?

“We face issues such as unbalanced, uncoordinated, unsustainable development. There is no strong capability in technological innovation. There is a gap between urban and rural development. Many problems and issues affect interest of the masses such as education, employment, social security, healthcare, housing, environment, food and drug safety, workplace safety, social order, law enforcement, and judicial issues. There is too much formalism and bureaucratism. The anti-corruption situation is still grim. The crucial thing in resolving these issues is to deepen reforms.” If you think it is a statement about India. It is not. It is an extract from the document issued by third plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in November 2013. But it is true for India and most of it true for any other country. Every country faces these problems, the difference is the country’s capacity, the determination and the resilience to deal with the problems.

That capacity, determination and resilience comes from the country’s model of governance. Mr P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister of India, says  “I find that there are three distinct models of governance. In every democracy there are three institutions: the executive, the legislature or parliament, and the judiciary. Countries which have struck the right balance between these three institutions are the countries that seem to go forward. Countries which have a strong executive are China, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and Mexico. Those are the countries which are recording the highest rates of growth. Countries which have a strong legislature or parliament are the US and all the European countries. Countries where the judiciary has an upper hand are India and some others.” Is India’s middle class about to change the Indian governance model? Time, I mean 2014, will tell.

I will leave it to you to comprehend which model will bring about inclusiveness better. It is pretty obvious, not rocket science. The inclusive growth cannot take place if a huge section of the societies are not taken into confidence. They feel left out and could not care less to participate in the country’s affairs. They participate just for the sake of participation, superficially. There is no ownership. So, the growth suffers. The economic development is weak and fragile. The country suffers from policy paralysis. The policies swing like a pendulum, from end to end, in dark. How can such a development be sustainable when major section of the population is left behind and helplessly watching from the side-line? If the economic assets sit idle, they are no longer assets. Simple as that!

Reinhold Niebuhr says, " Change is the essence of life. Be willing to surrender what you are for what you could become." India clearly needs to see in 2014 what she could become for surrendering what she is. If inclusiveness with transparency and integrity of the highest order -- the foundation stones of the governance -- is not there, the commitment to serve the people with zest sounds empty.