India Votes !

India, the 10^th largest economy in the world, is the largest democracy with 814.5 million registered voters – again largest in the world -- participating in next month’s 16^th Lok Sabha election. The election will take place from 7 April to 12 May, before expiry of the term of 15^th Lok Sabha on 31 May 2014. The forthcoming election will have 100 million more voters than the last 2009 election. The addition is mainly because of the youngsters entering into the voting age group. Why not when 50% of its population is below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. The young voters  live in cities, and are aspiring, ambitious and street smart. It is the young India who will pick the next government and the prime minister. So the outcome is not expected to be as a result of usual patronage politics.

India’s main weaknesses are governance and infrastructure. Poor governance and infrastructure resulting mainly from corruption, not lack of skills. In fact India’s strength lies on its intellectual, technical and engineering talents. And the other strength is labour, both for supporting its economy and (looks like this time around) politics. 

So the main issue revolving around Indian election this time is corruption. It even gave birth to an Aam Aadmi Party (common man party) proliferating their agenda on three Cs - Corruption, Crony capitalism and Clean governance. And, the reason why Indian National Congress (Congress), heading the central government for a total of 50 years since independence in 1947, is struggling to achieve three figure Lok Sabha outcome, if the opinion polls are to be believed, in the house of 543 seats. Nandan Nilekani, an IIT graduate and co-founder of Infosys with net worth of $1.3 billion, joined Congress party recently. He was asked despite having good pedigree and coming with vast corporate experience why was he interested in joining Congress when its popularity was sagging day-by-day.  He said his decision to join the party was not based on “flavour of the month” but more on Indian National Congress ideology. It sounds more like gearing towards 17^th Lok Sabha election in 2019 than preparing for the next month. Same applies to the Congress strategy to replace 35% of its candidates with younger politicians, including Karthi Chidambaram in place of finance minister father P. Chidambaram. The Congress, it seems, is "mentally prepared' that they will not win this election. The question is how will they shape-up in 2019 and there after.

That leaves Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on firm front-footing for pursuing Narendra Modi’s neoliberal agenda with a drive towards development. BJP’s policies in the past have included extensive privatisation of infrastructure and services, as well as a significant rollback of labour and environmental regulations: a business-friendly situation that also catered to BJP’s upper class constituencies. The reason why BSE Sensex has leaped up from 18,000 in August 2013 to all time high of 22,307 due to continued buying by foreign investors, and likes of Mukesh Ambani are upbeat. So are investment analyst. Adam Gilmour, head  of Citigroup’s Asia-Pacific currency and derivatives sales, says if Narendra Modi becomes India’s next prime minister the weak rupee will strengthen by some 35% to 40 to a dollar from an all-time low of over 68 to the US dollar. The corporate India is backing Modi. But the critics say development in Modi's Gujarat has not been pro-poor. Arvind Khejriwal, the leader of Aam Aadmi Party, knew it and wanted to encash on it drumming pro-poor tune on the streets of Ahmadabad until he was picked up by Gujarat police that diverted attention.

The India’s huge potential strength is its young labour. In the old world, labour as a resource could not be brought into the global market. Now with modern technology  the global labour market is gradually coming into a common pool changing even the structure of the global economy. It is possible for workers en masse to be working for Japanese, Americans and Europeans sitting in India (No one will know better than  Nandan Nilekani) . So how can the Indian politics rely on old-fashioned cynicism. The BJP knows and other political parties are also realizing the change.

It is not going to be tectonic shift from patronage to empowerment in Indian politics just after one Lok Sabha election rinse. Indians aspiring to transform themselves from subjects to citizens may not be adequate to break the cosy relationships enjoyed by the politicians so soon. But it is most likely that the young India will not let the Indian politics divert to old  money, muscle and cronyism pattern either. It may take time for the change. There are too many forces to diffuse for moving forward and protecting their past (mis)doings and interests, internal and external.

   This reminds me of the news I read that Gautam Bambawale, joint secretary in-charge of the East Asia division that includes China and Japan, has been appointed India’s next ambassador to Bhutan replacing ambassador V. P. Haran who has been in Thimphu since January 2013, just before the Bhutanese election. Whatever may be the reason, speculation easily shifts towards political manoeuvring just before the two elections, Bhutanese and Indian.

By the same token, the 12^th Empowered Joint Group approved on 12 March 2014  four hydropower projects, including selection of following Indian public sector companies as joint venture partners of  Druk Green Power Corporation , while 70% loan financing arrangements are still not in place:

(i)         Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited for 600 MW Kholongchhu project (cost: Nu 26B);

(ii)         Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited  for 570 MW Wangchhu (cost: Nu 46.4B);

(iii)       Tehri Hydro Development Corporation Limited for Bunakha  (cost: Nu 29.5B); and

(iv)       The National Hydroelectric Power Corporation for 770 MW Chamkharchhu  (cost: Nu 47.7B).

We should be aware of the fact that change in government brings about microscopic scrutiny on the past actions. This is universal political phenomena. Even if we are not able to hedge our bet to take advantage of the change, flagging the issues last hour on radar screen may turn out counterproductive. We should be smart enough to take care of the situation. If we cannot then there is no option except to take responsibility for the position we are in!