I find fascinating
and at times hilarious talking politics with taxi/truck drivers at their level.
They do give first-hand grass-root information. On 16 May 2014 (afternoon) --
the day India and many parts of the world were glued to TV watching Indian Lok Sabha
election results -- we received our consignment from Guwahati. The truck driver
had been driving whole day so he had no clue what was latest on election until
he crossed one of the Assam police check-posts. The police told the truck
driver, “ arre…bhai aaj jaldi dedo, kal se nahi mileage” (Ah..give us fast
today, we won’t get from tomorrow). “Kyon sahab?” (why sir) innocent driver
asked. The police nervously said, “tum kahan ho? Kal se Modi aa raha
hai” (where the hell are you? Modi is coming from tomorrow). Do you think this
was isolated case? I don’t. Those used to extortion would probably be saying
same all over India. This is the post-election India, on its way to Modi-fication
after BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) landslide victory, the figures (such as BJP:
282, Congress: 44 …) everyone knows by hard now. Here I am referring to the perception
change at grass-root level through sudden change of the country's leadership and power landscape,
an important element for reform to succeed.
On 17 May 2014
I was on a day’s business trip to nearby town, Bongaigaon, Assam. We stopped
by a Dhaba (roadside tea stall) for tea. The Dhaba people said they had heavy
hang-over from previous day’s “dancing/drinking”, celebrating their candidate’s
massive victory. Their candidate was Naba Kumar Sarania (Hira), Independent
(belonging to no party as such) winner from Kokrajhar constituency, the Indian belt
neighboring Gelephu and surrounding areas. The Kokrajhar result is
critical not only for tribal (Bodo) and non-tribal (non-Bodo) population of the
constituency but equally for us in southern Bhutan considering that it is one
of the most volatile regions of India where several horrifying acts have been committed, and with frequent kidnapping, strike and curfew.
Hira Sarania – a former United Liberation Front
of Assam (ULFA) commander – is aligned with non-Bodo groups and won with big margin. So the celebration
we saw was non-Bodo supporters celebrating victory of first non-Bodo candidate in the Lok
Sabha from Kokrajhar. I wish it was as simple as that, but it is not.
Both communities are likely to draw contradictory
messages from Sarania landslide victory. Bodos are likely to view his triumph as an
indication that outsiders (non-Bodos) have marginalized and alienated them in their own lands. Non-Bodos, on the
other hand, see it as proof of the Bodos turning into minority now. So the peace
in the area is up in the air for a toss.
The only hope again may be Modi-fication that Modi’s
BJP (or other way round) -- after winning 7 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats even
in Assam where Congress (winning only 3 seats this time) have ruled past 63 out
of 67 years -- will form the first BJP state government in Assam and with local leaders take
control of the situation. The Kokrajhar problem will be tough to crack even for
BJP. I am saying this because of the sheer dimension. The like (and/or unlike) Kokrajhar
problems multiply India-wide across 28 states and seven union territories,
each with the size of a country. The perception change similar to that of Assam
police will definitely help put the house in order. But this alone cannot stand
on its own. It would be beneficial on all accounts for us if we also could make our
modest efforts (at central, state and local levels) toward peaceful resolution
of the Kokrajhar problem.
In
Bongaigaon, I overheard my business counterpart telling “nothing” to his
colleague’s “how was the election”. I asked what exactly he meant. He said Modi
fever was blowing like a storm. He knew his vote did not count. So it was nothing. I
said Modi came to Assam twice and promised to develop resource-rich
north-east. “That is very promising”, he
said. Interesting! Politics of compulsion rather than choice. A non-BJP person believing
in Modi to do well for him.
The
BJP emphasis for north-east includes improving governance, delivery
of public services, eradicating systemic corruption and rapidly developing north-east by empowering the Ministry of North-Eastern
Region. Specific programs include emphasizing on massive infrastructure
development; addressing flood control in Assam and river water
management issues; generating jobs through tourism and IT industry; addressing infiltration
and illegal immigration problems; fencing India-Bangladesh and India-Myanmar
borders and stepping up border security; taking safety measures for north-eastern
students studying across the country; and dealing with insurgent groups with a
firm hand.
Generally
people seem to like BJP’s inclusiveness slogan of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (together with all, development for all) and their economic mantras of peoples’ empowerment
in place of economic handout, focus on outcomes rather than outlays, and skills
development. And then the people of India have huge expectation, the reason why Modi
was given lanslide victory ending the old top-down politics dominated by money
and muscle power. The Indian politics has changed for good. Those outdated were
left behind and may have to even give up.
The
big question now is, will BJP be able to deliver in line with peoples’ expectation? I do not think there is a choice from now. They
will have to try. So, we should be smart enough to move along in terms of both structural
reforms and inclusive development. We need to be sharp and proactive. As I said
earlier perfect policies and strategies,
balanced implementation and precise timing are key elements of the geopolitical
foresight !
