India Votes !

India, the 10^th largest economy in the world, is the largest democracy with 814.5 million registered voters – again largest in the world -- participating in next month’s 16^th Lok Sabha election. The election will take place from 7 April to 12 May, before expiry of the term of 15^th Lok Sabha on 31 May 2014. The forthcoming election will have 100 million more voters than the last 2009 election. The addition is mainly because of the youngsters entering into the voting age group. Why not when 50% of its population is below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. The young voters  live in cities, and are aspiring, ambitious and street smart. It is the young India who will pick the next government and the prime minister. So the outcome is not expected to be as a result of usual patronage politics.

India’s main weaknesses are governance and infrastructure. Poor governance and infrastructure resulting mainly from corruption, not lack of skills. In fact India’s strength lies on its intellectual, technical and engineering talents. And the other strength is labour, both for supporting its economy and (looks like this time around) politics. 

So the main issue revolving around Indian election this time is corruption. It even gave birth to an Aam Aadmi Party (common man party) proliferating their agenda on three Cs - Corruption, Crony capitalism and Clean governance. And, the reason why Indian National Congress (Congress), heading the central government for a total of 50 years since independence in 1947, is struggling to achieve three figure Lok Sabha outcome, if the opinion polls are to be believed, in the house of 543 seats. Nandan Nilekani, an IIT graduate and co-founder of Infosys with net worth of $1.3 billion, joined Congress party recently. He was asked despite having good pedigree and coming with vast corporate experience why was he interested in joining Congress when its popularity was sagging day-by-day.  He said his decision to join the party was not based on “flavour of the month” but more on Indian National Congress ideology. It sounds more like gearing towards 17^th Lok Sabha election in 2019 than preparing for the next month. Same applies to the Congress strategy to replace 35% of its candidates with younger politicians, including Karthi Chidambaram in place of finance minister father P. Chidambaram. The Congress, it seems, is "mentally prepared' that they will not win this election. The question is how will they shape-up in 2019 and there after.

That leaves Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on firm front-footing for pursuing Narendra Modi’s neoliberal agenda with a drive towards development. BJP’s policies in the past have included extensive privatisation of infrastructure and services, as well as a significant rollback of labour and environmental regulations: a business-friendly situation that also catered to BJP’s upper class constituencies. The reason why BSE Sensex has leaped up from 18,000 in August 2013 to all time high of 22,307 due to continued buying by foreign investors, and likes of Mukesh Ambani are upbeat. So are investment analyst. Adam Gilmour, head  of Citigroup’s Asia-Pacific currency and derivatives sales, says if Narendra Modi becomes India’s next prime minister the weak rupee will strengthen by some 35% to 40 to a dollar from an all-time low of over 68 to the US dollar. The corporate India is backing Modi. But the critics say development in Modi's Gujarat has not been pro-poor. Arvind Khejriwal, the leader of Aam Aadmi Party, knew it and wanted to encash on it drumming pro-poor tune on the streets of Ahmadabad until he was picked up by Gujarat police that diverted attention.

The India’s huge potential strength is its young labour. In the old world, labour as a resource could not be brought into the global market. Now with modern technology  the global labour market is gradually coming into a common pool changing even the structure of the global economy. It is possible for workers en masse to be working for Japanese, Americans and Europeans sitting in India (No one will know better than  Nandan Nilekani) . So how can the Indian politics rely on old-fashioned cynicism. The BJP knows and other political parties are also realizing the change.

It is not going to be tectonic shift from patronage to empowerment in Indian politics just after one Lok Sabha election rinse. Indians aspiring to transform themselves from subjects to citizens may not be adequate to break the cosy relationships enjoyed by the politicians so soon. But it is most likely that the young India will not let the Indian politics divert to old  money, muscle and cronyism pattern either. It may take time for the change. There are too many forces to diffuse for moving forward and protecting their past (mis)doings and interests, internal and external.

   This reminds me of the news I read that Gautam Bambawale, joint secretary in-charge of the East Asia division that includes China and Japan, has been appointed India’s next ambassador to Bhutan replacing ambassador V. P. Haran who has been in Thimphu since January 2013, just before the Bhutanese election. Whatever may be the reason, speculation easily shifts towards political manoeuvring just before the two elections, Bhutanese and Indian.

By the same token, the 12^th Empowered Joint Group approved on 12 March 2014  four hydropower projects, including selection of following Indian public sector companies as joint venture partners of  Druk Green Power Corporation , while 70% loan financing arrangements are still not in place:

(i)         Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited for 600 MW Kholongchhu project (cost: Nu 26B);

(ii)         Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited  for 570 MW Wangchhu (cost: Nu 46.4B);

(iii)       Tehri Hydro Development Corporation Limited for Bunakha  (cost: Nu 29.5B); and

(iv)       The National Hydroelectric Power Corporation for 770 MW Chamkharchhu  (cost: Nu 47.7B).

We should be aware of the fact that change in government brings about microscopic scrutiny on the past actions. This is universal political phenomena. Even if we are not able to hedge our bet to take advantage of the change, flagging the issues last hour on radar screen may turn out counterproductive. We should be smart enough to take care of the situation. If we cannot then there is no option except to take responsibility for the position we are in!

Is India Fighting Back?

On 6 November 2013, I wrote on Facebook’s “What’s on your mind” the following: “PDP government, better be good at hedging our bets. If not, we do not need to second guess the consequences. Nichey rajniti hava palat nahi rahi hai kya (Isn’t the political wind changing direction down there)?” I was talking of “rajniti hava” (political wind) not in terms of NaMo  for Narendra Modi vis-à-vis RaGa for Rahul Gandhi (Indian press acronyms, not mine), not even  Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) against Congress. I was talking of bottom-up politics sprouting inclusive growth and governance in place of top-down politics of corruption, handout and populous policies. It is more about politics of truth and sincerity upsurge, the change in the political conception of the country. You do not believe me? Feel the ground pulse. Even those who have been promoting and encouraging caste-based politics are now  talking of politics on secular platform.

While 70% of India’s population live in rural areas, the urban India accounts for almost 70% of the country’s GDP. While the votes are in villages, the money is in cities.  The top-down politics with the power of urban money to influence rural votes did not consider in the past that the people are an economic asset. They mattered for votes only, and were out of mainstream development process once the elections were over. The countryside was essentially the venue for legitimizing power and authority. Without their participation in development, inclusive growth is far from reality.

If you come up with the economic growth model that has politically mandated objectives and spell out tasks ordained by such peripherals, it cannot be inclusive. For inclusiveness, the growth has to be owned by citizens of the country through equality of opportunity. It now looks like it is going to be no more integration of old-fashioned political intelligence and perception. It will be different. It would be naïve to underestimate the power of word-of-mouth that travels with the help of digital devices and social media in a lightning speed, with Bollywood to Yogi Ramdeo playing fair share in corruption-bashing trend.  The Indian middle class, comprising about 30% of 1.2 billion populations living in urban areas, champion the art. They are seen as young, aspiring, idealistic and ambitious. Otherwise, how could Arvind Kejriwal, mechanical engineering graduate from my college, IIT Kharagpur, be crowned as the Chief Minister of Delhi?

“We face issues such as unbalanced, uncoordinated, unsustainable development. There is no strong capability in technological innovation. There is a gap between urban and rural development. Many problems and issues affect interest of the masses such as education, employment, social security, healthcare, housing, environment, food and drug safety, workplace safety, social order, law enforcement, and judicial issues. There is too much formalism and bureaucratism. The anti-corruption situation is still grim. The crucial thing in resolving these issues is to deepen reforms.” If you think it is a statement about India. It is not. It is an extract from the document issued by third plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in November 2013. But it is true for India and most of it true for any other country. Every country faces these problems, the difference is the country’s capacity, the determination and the resilience to deal with the problems.

That capacity, determination and resilience comes from the country’s model of governance. Mr P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister of India, says  “I find that there are three distinct models of governance. In every democracy there are three institutions: the executive, the legislature or parliament, and the judiciary. Countries which have struck the right balance between these three institutions are the countries that seem to go forward. Countries which have a strong executive are China, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and Mexico. Those are the countries which are recording the highest rates of growth. Countries which have a strong legislature or parliament are the US and all the European countries. Countries where the judiciary has an upper hand are India and some others.” Is India’s middle class about to change the Indian governance model? Time, I mean 2014, will tell.

I will leave it to you to comprehend which model will bring about inclusiveness better. It is pretty obvious, not rocket science. The inclusive growth cannot take place if a huge section of the societies are not taken into confidence. They feel left out and could not care less to participate in the country’s affairs. They participate just for the sake of participation, superficially. There is no ownership. So, the growth suffers. The economic development is weak and fragile. The country suffers from policy paralysis. The policies swing like a pendulum, from end to end, in dark. How can such a development be sustainable when major section of the population is left behind and helplessly watching from the side-line? If the economic assets sit idle, they are no longer assets. Simple as that!

Reinhold Niebuhr says, " Change is the essence of life. Be willing to surrender what you are for what you could become." India clearly needs to see in 2014 what she could become for surrendering what she is. If inclusiveness with transparency and integrity of the highest order -- the foundation stones of the governance -- is not there, the commitment to serve the people with zest sounds empty.

The Indian Rupee: Depreciated Crunch

Many of my best friends are Indians. D. N. Gupta was one I met during my 1974 foundational training in National Academy of Administration in Mussoourie (India). We were very goods friends. I asked him once, "DN you are a smart guy. Why do think the others are stupid?" "B****** (unprintable Punjabi word), you at least admit I am smart. Who says I think others are stupid? " was his reply.  "You liar, B******" I said. He just gave a crooked smile. DN died later in a motor bike accident. I remember fondly time I spent with him!

The Indian economy was on upward growth track till 2008. India was considered next to China and a global power to reckon with. The reforms were on track and foreign capitals were moving into the country. Then the foreigners started pulling back seeing increasing political dysfunction: lack of commitment and action for progressive reforms and alleged corruption. The rupee began downward slide, investment slowed and deficit increased.   The shock came to the investors when Indian finance minister released a budget in March last year that proposed new taxes on foreign entities in India. Now India’s current account deficit (CAD)  for 2013 of $98 billion (4.9% of GDP), behind only the US at $473 billion and the UK 106 billion, is the key area of concern in its economy.

The CAD is created when the country's import bill is bigger than its earnings from exports. A widening CAD puts strain on the nation's foreign exchange reserves (FX reserve).   It also indicates that the country’s budget is under pressure having to borrow more money. India’s FX reserve as of August 16, 2013 stands at $278.8 billion . India wants to contain its CAD  at $70 billion (3.7% of GDP) in FY2013-14.

With Indian Rupee heading to 70 to a dollar, the situation may look good for Indian exports and tough for imports, such as oil which India imports 80% of its requirement.  The fact is even the export is dependent on import of a lot of raw material (e.g., from China). So the rupee devaluation will have a torrent effect, spiraling inflation if money is not kept tight to check the inflation. Then commodities of daily use will be more expensive. Therefore it is important not only to check the rupee’s downward slide but also achieve sustained recovery.

The global oil contracts are mostly settled in US dollars. So the Indian oil firms sell rupees to buy US dollars to pay for the oil imports. The transaction looked to stem the decline of the Indian rupee. Therefore  the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), among others, said it will sell US dollars to three state-run oil firms to help meet the daily dollar requirements of the firms estimated at about  $300m worth of daily oil import, needing about $8.5 billion every month.  The RBI’s  decision  to take the bulk of oil firms’ dollar demand away from the foreign-exchange market may do good near-term but the main issue will still be addressing domestic structural factors for sustained reversal of the trend. And then unfortunately the RBI move comes in the midst of volatility in the global oil price triggered by concerns of a military strike against Syria.

The offshore market for rupee trading has been increasing in size in the past year or so accounting for more than half of all rupee trading volumes. The trend has been outflow. Take money out now, convert it into a hard currency, wait for the rupee to fall to 70 or more against the dollar, then bring it back into the country and convert it back to rupees. The reason for speculators and investors to trade outside of India’s borders, many say, is because they are afraid that India might freeze funds inside the country.

Another indicator is the offshore-finance system. It is well known that Mauritius is the main conduit for foreign investment into India with 30-40% of the stock of foreign capital sitting in funds domiciled in the island. While some say  it allows investors to avoid red tape and unfair capital-gains levies, others argue that Mauritius is a conduit through which Indians send and bring back black money. The real truth may be somewhere in the middle.  With currency and the equity markets now getting cheap, the foreign capital will find value in them. The value alone is not a catalyst for purchase. The Government will need to show that they have no intention of tightening capital controls on foreign investors by reforming policies and regulations if needed. The Indian Prime Minister assured the Parliament on August 30, 2013 that there will be no capital controls or reversal of the reform  process. 

The RBI allowing currency to depreciate instead of trying to protect at particular level may be a sound strategy in one way.  If the currency depreciates, the import bill will go down, the export bill will go up  with only  letting the market forces do the work. While allowing markets to act, the government will need to work hard on appropriate reforms,  the key aspect to reversal of the trend.  "The current situation presents a challenge, obviously, to the government of India, but also an opportunity for the government to continue in its policy efforts on a variety of fronts," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said.

Being so closely tied with the fate of Indian economy, we should be aware of the strategic reforms and moves the Indian government makes, and harmonize our economic policies and reforms not to let ripples turning into our economic tsunamis.  We obviously do not have capacity to take advantage of resulting Indian currency and equity market appreciation later. If we could, I feel, there is an opportunity.  Also, the government has to be eschewed borrowing in Indian currency, precisely because linkages of its solvency to volatile currency markets. Above all, we should remember that when big boys play defensive economic game, it’s in no way a zero sum game!

To the New Government

Tashi Delek, Hon'ble Prime Minister, Ministers and Members of Parliament!

You govern the country for next five years.  There are challenges ahead. When you face challenges, I suggest you go often to Reinhold Neibuhr’s words in The Serenity of Prayer: “ God, give us the grace to accept with serenity the things that cannot be changed, courage to change the things which should be changed, and the wisdom to distinguish one from other.” Do not let your inner voice be drowned. We would like to see your courage following your intuition and heart, and your wisdom to know and to transform the community, society, and the nation for good.

I do not wish to remind you of your election promises and pledges. That was politics, a cocktail politics. Let us talk politics, not exactly politics but political development so far. Even though we are just two-election old and cannot call it a trend by any standard, it is worth talking about it in the interest of politics. If Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT) in 2008 and People's Democratic Party (PDP) in 2013 think that they won the elections on their capability and credibility, I beg to disagree.  The DPT's landslide victory in  2008 was mainly because, I was told,  people did not want PDP to come to power. And, I do not attribute PDP's recent victory entirely to your competence and credibility. No sir, it was more of the people not wanting  DPT  continuation in power for another five years.  Why do you think DPT's votes in 43 out of 47 constituencies declined in general round from their primary round total? It was mainly "I do not want" rather than "I want". In plain political terms both the wins are mostly attributable to negative votes.

So the question is -- why are the Bhutanese getting used to casting negative votes?  The simple answer: it is easy to pinpoint mistakes of others, particularly of the government (with the help of press, civil servants and words of mouth), than to understand the real capability and competence of candidates/political parties in few days. Then there are always internal and external elements to add and multiply the impact through even your day-to-day living . The optimist will argue that negative votes will keep ruling party on their toes, but the fact is negative votes elect incompetent people. We have no time to waste another five years. How can you keep an incompetent person on the toes for five years? When competency of candidates/political parties is not an issue, voters are easily influenced by external factors. The politics gets dirty, and does not attract bright persons. The result, we land up having incompetent puppet government. In my opinion this will be simply disastrous. Can we afford people in power who has no sense to understand the difference between economic/financial assistance and strategic economic squeeze? If there are such people why blame others. It is an abstract, not deduction. I do not have an  opinion yet on your team. For now I give you the benefit of doubt. You now prove that you were elected to serve the nation, and not you were elected because the electorates did not want the other person.  

As I mentioned I do not want to make an issue out of your promises, not even on governance pledge (on which many have started muttering) like: 

"The PDP government will not increase government ministries. The prime minister will also assume the portfolio of at least one ministry to ensure that there is no need to have too many ministers. We will ensure that the prime minister’s office is not bloated. The prime minister and cabinet ministers will have minimum security. On completing the term, PDP cabinet will return the duty vehicles to the government."

The Bhutanese should not care much about these as long as the manner in which power exercised in the management of country's economic and social resources is only in the overall interest of the nation.  Without such exercise of power you know "Wangtse Chhirpel : Prosperity for All" is meaningless. 

There are far more important issues right on your plate. First and foremost, the economy needs all the attention.  The economy is expected to decline if it is not addressed through sound macroeconomic management, a strong domestic revenue base, and efficient physical infrastructure.  We know that macroeconomic management challenges due to widening domestic and external imbalances, coupled with rising inflation and the rupee liquidity squeeze, are complex.   Generating strong domestic revenue is tough, but not impossible. For efficient physical infrastructure, we need strong technical capacities in both government and private sectors.  

We are not asking you to perform miracles. You have the wisdom to make the right head-start, and with the blessing of His Majesty,  I am sure the country will be behind you. Be positive about this!

LPG & Kerosene subsidy: What is it about?

The Government of India (GOI) has stopped subsidizing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene to Bhutan resulting in massive increase in prices of these commodities in Bhutan.  There are reports that people have started looking for alternatives such as electricity fired cooking stoves, firewood stoves etc. The price increases were shocking to the poorer section of Bhutanese and are almost beyond their affordability range.

Is the objective of the LPG & kerosene subsidy (LKS) withdrawal aimed at punishing poor Bhutanese, who  want no harm to an insect leave aside our Indian friends? I do not think this is what GOI wants? Do they want to look like big bully in South Asia? They know the risk and  will not let  Rs. 0.58 billion/year subsidy issue reach that level. Is it intended to put a permanent dent in the Indo-Bhutan relationship? The relationship is much bigger an issue to both the countries than the subsidy withdrawal  that they know can be resolved at mutually acceptable and beneficial way. So, it is not what they want but more about what they do not want. In geopolitics there is huge difference between the two. Do they care which political party comes to power in Bhutan as long as “what they do not want” is taken care of?  Why should they? Theoretically. The preference obviously would be to the one who would not let them resort to future “subsidy cut”.

But for us, it is a problem, in fact a huge problem because it cuts across the entire population.  Some feel the pinch and others tight squeeze. The poorer section of the people are suffering hard. More than 60% of the household is affected directly. We need to find the solution to the problem at the earliest.  The quickest solution obviously is Royal Government of Bhutan (RGOB) cross-subsidizing LPG and kerosene to poorer section until a solution to the problem is worked out and agreed.  Can’t RGOB come up with cross-subsidy package  to take care of poorer segment of  our people as a near-term easing of problem?  We are not used to work things out but used to  take easier route taking things for granted.  Aren’t we?

We live in multi-dimensional environment. One-dimensional approach to resolving a problem needs to change.  Both the political parties have promised approaching GOI as soon as they are voted to form the government to resolve the LKS problem. They need our vote to  form the government first, and will then work on resolving the problem that affects day-to-day life of more than 60% of the population. What a meager and convenient response to an emergency?  Yes, it is, in my humble view. Why two parties could not come up with bi-partisan solution to the problem in immediate-term first, including how we should mobilize Nu 48 million/month (or much less may do) to meet the GOI subsidy deficit?  Then they could talk of how they would resolve the issue on a longer-term. Are domestic airport/education city/bulldozer to gewog/helicopter service/feeder roads of more priority than massive LPG/kerosene price hike in immediate-term?  To me, a Bhutanese family not being able to properly cook their evening meal because they cannot afford kerosene is an emergency deserving action by the country. The lead should have come from the two political parties. Painfully both political parties want our votes first.

Frankly, I did not know about GOI’s subsidy on LPG/kerosene until one of my construction workers from Dadgiri (India) came to me couple of months back for 10 lit. kerosene from my quota. When I asked why he wanted kerosene from Bhutan, he said it was much cheaper here in Gelephu. It was obviously subsidized I thought, but did not give much attention then. We not only give less attention, but take things for granted.  We took for granted LKS of Rs 0.58 billion. That’s why we are unprepared when the subsidy is withdrawn.  There is no back-up plan. I do not believe blanket passing of the entire Nu 0.58 billion to the people irrespective of their ability to pay the price hike a back-up plan.  I am talking here not only poor micro-economic management but also blind economic dependence, the issues as important as that for the country!

We live in the digital world that is more and more referred these days as the “global village”.  The more inward looking you are, fearing intellectual as well as physical externalities, weaker you become as an economic inhabitant of global village. The World Bank says Africa is now on the verge to take off like China was 30 years ago. It is opening up through political and economic reforms. They want to pursue inclusive growth and become proactive members of global village. The reason why west is giving more attention and China is giving much priority to Africa.

Deep understanding of economic issues and sharp analytical ability enable us to see things ahead of time. If not the events catch up and give us a rude awakening, like the LKS withdrawal. No country in the world is economically independent. The economic inter-dependence is inevitable, and in many ways healthy and beneficial only if we understood deeply the issues, analyzed and harmonized to our advantage. If not, in an inter-dependent environment, the stronger dominates brutally. The domination is reflected in trade balance.  Many say the modern-day war is not fought with ammunitions but with trade.  How many countries invaded another nation sending army across the border in last 50 years? I recollect none.

I do not believe it is only size that matters.  Economic smartness matters more. If only size mattered why do you think Nestle products (from Switzerland) dominated the supermarkets of the world, from China to Russia to United States to Brazil? Economic inter-dependency is healthy, one-way dependency is severe, but blind dependency lethal. To avoid this macro- and micro-economic management must be smart and strategic. If not, the consequence is right in front of you. And, this isn’t the last. There is no use worrying about things that cannot be changed. Worry drains energy and damages soul.  I read that the Sanskrit character for funeral pyre and worry are similar because former burns the dead and latter living. It is worth going back often to Reinhold Neibuhr’s words in The Serenity of Prayer: “ God, give us the grace to accept with serenity the things that cannot be changed, courage to change the things which should be changed, and the wisdom to distinguish one from other.”  And then face the challenges, not run away from it! 

My Vote!

It is raining in Gelephu.  I am reading, “Following the money trail in politics” on Kuensel. Just makes me wonder if we are heading towards managed democracy, more specifically money managed.  May be not, considering that the voters are not as politically raw as they were first time around and if we can call 2008 result a trend. The July 13 is approaching fast and the choice is in the hands of every registered voter including me.  This is how I would decide which ballot button to press.

First and foremost I will identify candidate who is more authentic. Only genuine persons will better serve the community, society, constituency and the nation. The authentic persons will not try to mortgage community’s future with offers of telecom vouchers/gho pieces/money/personal packages. They do not believe in building legitimacy but believe in building legacy. They do not view not winning an election as rejection.  Rather than rejection, they see it as constituency’s loss and politely move ahead to next platform for some pragmatic contribution. The more you are genuine a person, the less you need to prove yourself to others. So authentic persons are in positive frame of mind to better serve the nation.  How do I know who is more genuine? 

Ten-point principles will help me identify:

(i)   I will categorize the candidate promising development handout as if he/she will be doing people a favour as non-genuine. Every citizen has a right to development. Development is not prerogative of politicians. I would rather go for a person who promises how best he/she will utilize the political positions, authorities and services to mobilize resources to help achieve constituency’s growth objectives.  For example, one promises feeder road and the other says how resources (men, machinery, material and money) for the feeder road will be mobilized and community empowered to value and maintain the feeder road for longer-term benefits of the people. One is about giving handout and other owning and supporting the transport problem. My support will go to latter.

(ii)  My vote will not go to a person who talks top-down considering himself/herself as super being for acrimonious reasons. Authentic persons are levelheaded and humble, not arrogant, and know how to talk to people at every level from village illiterate to intellectuals, and with peoples of every region and background.  I respect humility.

(iii)  I will not vote for a person who tries to take advantage   of others’ mistakes. Persons enhancing their own status/positions at the expense of others never make good leaders. We all make mistakes. They are essential for improvement. Albert Einstein said," A person who never made mistake never tried anything new."

(iv)   I will not support candidates who live on hardened attitude and bitter prejudices of past.  Persons coming forward with such frozen negative sentiment lack rational thinking. First step to improving life is to improve thinking.  We need leaders with ability to think deep to guide us with foresight and courage.

(v)   I will classify the candidates who had opportunity to contribute but did not do it in the past, and now talk about doing things (which they have no clue about) as insensitive, irresponsible and incompetent. Such candidates do not deserve my support.

(vi)  I will not vote for person who works hard but with no sense to add value. In new economy you are compensated by not how hard you work but how much value you add.

(vii)  I will discard a candidate whose coordinators, tshogpas and  jabchorpas (paid workers) are of dubious integrity and shady background and are trying to lure voters through illegal means. They deserve last minute dump (no need to teach anyone this) because  superficial persons make shallow promises and have no credibility to make contributions.

(viii) I will vote for an unorthodox person. Unorthodox people are far more real, distinct and productive than people taking shelter under custom as cover of their shortcomings. As Rousseau says, “Take the course opposite to custom, you will almost always do well.”

(ix)  I will vote for candidate who accepts complete responsibility for the way things are, looks for new ideas and pioneers rational reforms.  Ability to introduce new dimension in your thought process is an important characteristic of a leader.

(x)   I will vote for a person who, in my opinion, has intellect for deep understanding of and acting on His Majesty’s message to the elected representatives

(a)on importance of shouldering duties and responsibilities;

(b)in providing service  to achieve the national goal to fulfill the aspiration of the people;

(c)in upholding democratic values including rule of law, good governance and  equitable prosperity;

(d) in maintaining tranquility; and

(e) in safeguarding security of the nation.

If you think I am looking for a person with all these attributes, I am not. When the choice is limited it is  relative, not absolute. In Bhutan almost everything is relative and one-dimensional. I am not looking for an ideal member of parliament. It’s the question of who is more authentic of the two. Not even more authentic, potentially authentic will be acceptable. So, my vote  (and yours) is (are) our future.  And, at no cost (you and ) I should let it go waste!

Bhutan Votes .....(2)

Sanney , from Dovan village under Sompangkha constituency (Sarpang Dzongkhag), lives in Gelephu and drives our tipper truck. About a month back he came to me saying tail light of the tipper was not working. It was high time we fixed it because local police caught him thrice but he got away with some story. I asked if it was the same police. He said different person every time. There was high chance that one of those three would catch him again. We fixed the light. He got away thrice. A street-smart fella ! I know it because he also gets away from me with his little story when he does a small “side business”. He does not know that I let him get away because he is pretty resourceful at the level and gives good output.

Last Wednesday (29 May) he asked permission to go to Dovan to vote (31 May primary round) because people there were telling him that he must come.  He said he would return on Sunday (2 June). The truck had to be parked for three days. I let him go. He returned to work on Monday (3 June). I asked Sanney, “ how did the voting go”?  He said he had to walk for more than a day to reach his village because the feeder road was completely blocked with landslide. He only knew “Chara (bird) Party” and “Ghora  (horse) Party”. His “sathi-bhai” (friends and family) told him to press “Chara Party” button, and he did it. Didn’t he see four black buttons? He said there were  quite a few but he did not care to see. He just pressed the "bird" button with right thumb. I asked, “you did not think of the feeder road and having to walk  more than a day while pressing the button?” He answered with a question  ” sir, wasn’t that feeder road constructed by the government?”  The street-smart guy is politically inert! And so are most of the rural population.There you have the educated/uneducated, urban/rural votes split.

Yes,  it was  either “Chara Party”  or “Ghora Party” , not so much DPT or PDP leave aside Druk Phuensum Tshogpa or People’s Democratic Party, in villages.   I do not need to tell you what “equity and justice” or  “empowering people for liberty, equality and prosperity…”  … blah … blah … means on ground or above. 

The “Chara Party” and “Ghora Party” are  not just village jargons.  These are political space carved out since 2008. It was much easier then because there was no primary round, the political space was empty  and there were just “bird” and “horse”.  You will know how difficult it is to carve out a space if the space is already  more or less occupied. You need to penetrate and convince people to shift position not with the intention of additional occupancy but replacement of one of the two.  Did Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) or  Druk Chirwang Tshogpa (DCT) try to penetrate gewog, chiwog and remote communities? It was out of their reach, and they did not even try. So why would you be surprised with the DNT result? I am not.

Is there additional primary round space  for two/three more parties? Well Sanney did not care to look into other buttons when there were just four, and then why would the others look elsewhere  when their “friends and families have told them to press specific button”.   The “friends and families” do not tell to press specific button out of nowhere. Primary round of three would make strategic sense, more than that is new parties’ dilution of the chances.  I am not saying, the primary round result is.

The primary round election result did not have big surprises but had some results that raised few eyebrows.  The DPT walked away with 33 seats, PDP 12 seats and DNT just 2.  The Pelela-east were swept by DPT except DNT stronghold, Thrimshing (Trashigang), but Pelela-west was dominated (9 seats out of 14) by PDP. You may call sympathy votes/stronghold or whatever, East going with DPT was expected. Looking at DPT-PDP nexus and also because DPT being the ruling party, the voting pattern in west tend to point towards anti-DPT pattern rather than pro-PDP  drive. The south is somewhat balanced. I call balance even though  DPT grabbed 7 out 10 seats mainly because the differences are marginal.  So how did PDP pull the rabbit out their hat, when everyone thought the “horse”, only a few weeks ago, was  hardly breathing. Did it get injected some oxygen drips? You will find out. It isn’t rocket science. The fact is the “horse” is up and running (the race).

Assuming voters turn-out of around 55% (same as primary round), 23% of the DNT & DCT votes (of which 33%, 9%, 24% and 34% are in the pockets of eastern, central, western and southern regions respectively) are up for grabs in general election, and will be shared by DPT and PDP . The share gets added to DPT’s primary round slice of 44.5% or PDP’s 32.5%. Without going too far, anyone in the street will tell you that DCT/DNT supporters are less likely to press the “bird” button in the forthcoming general election. And the shocking comment like people did not vote for DPT because they are ungrateful for what DPT has done in last five years  is not going to help them. The setting makes figures exciting and race competitive.

The straight line extrapolation will throw light on the election scenario, even though actuals may be pretty far from what is deduced here. With less than 75% of DCT/DNT votes to PDP, DPT will form the next government hands-down and PDP will sit once again in opposition benches.  If PDP can grab 75%,  one constituency of eastern, two constituencies of central, two  of western and solid four of southern region will move to PDP basket. The score: DPT:- 26; and PDP:-21. Still DPT government.

With 80% of DCT/DNT votes to PDP, one more constituency  each from eastern, central, western and southern region will take PDP side.  The result: DPT-:22; and PDP-25.  PDP forms the government, DPT is pushed to opposition benches.

Let DPT/PDP do their due diligence to find out which are those  13 critical seats  (east:2, central:3, West:3 and south:5). And,  they have to be smarter than going with blank assumption that the educated and/or urban votes will go along with the dropped out candidates,  Not only these, work out strategies to win those borderline 13.  Wow, borderline?  The 75-80% of DCT/DNT votes a borderline? No way, skeptics would say. Ladies and Gents, I am talking politics, not mathematics! The Bhutanese Politics, which gave us last five-year the Parliament of 45:2 ratio.